Category: dollar
For almost 20 years we have been anticipating a revolution in the international monetary system and in particular the emancipation of the global economy from the trade vehicle of the 20th century, the dollar.[1] Apparently, nothing has happened, the reason being that no one had any interest in the dollar disappearing overnight. So, the whole […]
Companies: Wave of bankruptcies in sight // Derivatives: 2023, on the way to a subprime giga-crisis // Dollar: Shortage in sight // Lifebuoy: Low potential of diversification // _______________ Companies: Wave of bankruptcies in sight Everyone knows that the Fed’s rate hikes in particular are designed to slow down a pre-COVID19 overheating economy, yet totally […]
Currencies – Storm warning // Dollar – Earlier than expected // Sterling pound – Forever // Euro – Hard to foresee // Cryptocurrencies – Much ado about nothing // Gold – Towards a simple commodity // Cash – Keep it in mind… // Emerging markets – don’t get locked in // ________________ Currencies – Storm […]
Stock market: storm in sight for banking stocks // EUR/USD: the fall continues // China’s property crisis: bankruptcies in sight… // Building materials: shortages are worsening __________________________ Stock market: storm in sight for banking stocks The eurozone banking sector, once again shaken to its foundations by the latest scandal, Cum-Ex files[1], is the subject of […]
Commodities – Questioning our certainties // Energy – Market fragmentation // Cryptocurrencies – Counterintuition // Dollar – Transmutation // Real Estate – Attention // Art – “Beauty will save the world” (Dostoyevsky) // Commodities – Questioning our certainties Energy and commodities are already at their highest point and, in our opinion, with no real room […]
Meta/Facebook: Complications in sight Mark Zuckerberg’s life has never been more complicated. Even he is questioning his free advertising-based model[1] and is moving towards a Netflix-like model. Officially, he is facing a crossfire of regulations, a shrinking subscriptions base, the arrival of Web3 challenging all his fundamentals, and more recently the loss of a quarter […]
The Fed published last month a timid report assessing the risks and opportunities of developing a central bank digital currency (CBDC).[1] The document, marked by caution and patience, insisted that it was by no means a launch announcement and that nothing would be undertaken without clear and strong government and public support. With sharp divisions […]
The monetary paradigm shift initiated around 2014 by China as part of the dual trend of “multipolarisation + digitalisation” is now launched at full speed. The followed paths are various, leading mid-term (2022-2025) to a global monetary dislocation with four main categories mentioned further below. The end of capital immobilisation The economy needs consumers. States […]
The dollar will collapse only if the United States decides to let it collapse. The country is now in a situation where it is getting closer to having to make that decision. Are the current threats of non-raising the debt ceiling designed to warn the world that this time is coming and that everyone must […]
Bitcoin: wait and see // Dollar: last opportunity // Stocks: floating bombs in sight! // Dollar versus tech stocks // Commodities: Bonanza! ______________________________ Bitcoin: wait and see Unsurprisingly, Bitcoin regained its luster over the summer. Governments on holiday gave it a free hand and it was able to follow its natural upward trend as a […]
The historic event of this summer is of course the withdrawal from Afghanistan, a withdrawal in which no one seemed to really believe, despite the decisions taken a year and a half earlier[1]… No one except France, which withdrew its troops last May[2]… proving everything was well planned after all. This event is important enough […]
Crypto-currencies: Maximum mistrust // Dollar : Standardisation // Technology stocks: Too virtual // Iron ore: Volatility in sight // Oil: Agility, security // If the “back to basics” trend that we have been observing for several months starts to dominate, as our research on energy and commodities seems to suggest, here is a new set […]
Recommendations: Treasure hunt This issue is packed with investment recommendations. Car sector, raw materials, technology stocks… we suggest you read it carefully then go on a treasure hunt! Samsung: Temporary mistrust The current economic and strategic rapprochement between the Chinese and South Korean leaders[1] makes us fear American reprisals. One can imagine that it will […]
Remember! Back in 2017 we anticipated that Saudi Arabia would soon be selling its oil in yuan? This was a highly provocative hypothesis at the time, since the country was then one of the two pillars of the petrodollar system.[1] Two years later, it became clear that export flows of Saudi oil were making a […]
The global systemic crisis has spanned 12 years between its onset in 2008 and its conclusion in 2020, most of which correspond to the ‘decantation phase’ mentioned in the previous article. During that time, the LEAP team has kept an eye on many axes of transformation – governance, geopolitical configuration, economic models, the Middle East, […]
Deep into our archives – The major phases of the ‘global systemic crisis’ as anticipated by the GEAB
The ‘world-after’ is a phrase which was probably uppermost in most people’s minds during the period of global lockdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic. For the authors and readers of the GEAB, it is nothing new; this phrase has been at the centre of our anticipatory analyses since issue No.28 of October 2008. At the […]
Everyone agrees that, as announced by the International Energy Agency and OPEC, the next peak oil will be around 2025 (2030 for McKinsey), all sectors of production included, whether conventional or unconventional. After that, the supply will fall or collapse, according to forecasters, in spite of population growth (though we will see later that such […]
The latent financial crisis, the invention of a new world monetary system, the world being shared between China and the United States, American military withdrawal, European disintegration, civil wars and border tensions, the reorganisation of the world map; we don’t know where to look first in the gigantic global reshuffle that is underway. The common […]