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Investments, trends and recommendations (sept)

Stock market: storm in sight for banking stocks // EUR/USD: the fall continues // China’s property crisis: bankruptcies in sight… // Building materials: shortages are worsening __________________________ Stock market: storm in sight for banking stocks The eurozone banking sector, once again shaken to its foundations by the latest scandal, Cum-Ex files[1], is the subject of […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (mar 2022)

Commodities – Questioning our certainties //  Energy – Market fragmentation //  Cryptocurrencies – Counterintuition //  Dollar – Transmutation //  Real Estate – Attention //  Art – “Beauty will save the world” (Dostoyevsky) //  Commodities – Questioning our certainties Energy and commodities are already at their highest point and, in our opinion, with no real room […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Feb)

Meta/Facebook: Complications in sight Mark Zuckerberg’s life has never been more complicated. Even he is questioning his free advertising-based model[1] and is moving towards a Netflix-like model. Officially, he is facing a crossfire of regulations, a shrinking subscriptions base, the arrival of Web3 challenging all his fundamentals, and more recently the loss of a quarter […]

Issues and strategies to rescue the global dollar in the era of the great monetary paradigm shift

The Fed published last month a timid report assessing the risks and opportunities of developing a central bank digital currency (CBDC).[1] The document, marked by caution and patience, insisted that it was by no means a launch announcement and that nothing would be undertaken without clear and strong government and public support. With sharp divisions […]

2022-2025 – Global Monetary Dislocation

The monetary paradigm shift initiated around 2014 by China as part of the dual trend of “multipolarisation + digitalisation” is now launched at full speed. The followed paths are various, leading mid-term (2022-2025) to a global monetary dislocation with four main categories mentioned further below. The end of capital immobilisation The economy needs consumers. States […]

Dollar: Time is running out

The dollar will collapse only if the United States decides to let it collapse. The country is now in a situation where it is getting closer to having to make that decision. Are the current threats of non-raising the debt ceiling designed to warn the world that this time is coming and that everyone must […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (sept 2021)

Bitcoin: wait and see // Dollar: last opportunity // Stocks: floating bombs in sight! // Dollar versus tech stocks // Commodities: Bonanza! ______________________________ Bitcoin: wait and see Unsurprisingly, Bitcoin regained its luster over the summer. Governments on holiday gave it a free hand and it was able to follow its natural upward trend as a […]

2021-2040: Back to the future

The historic event of this summer is of course the withdrawal from Afghanistan, a withdrawal in which no one seemed to really believe, despite the decisions taken a year and a half earlier[1]… No one except France, which withdrew its troops last May[2]… proving everything was well planned after all. This event is important enough […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (May 2021)

Crypto-currencies: Maximum mistrust // Dollar : Standardisation // Technology stocks: Too virtual // Iron ore: Volatility in sight // Oil: Agility, security //  If the “back to basics” trend that we have been observing for several months starts to dominate, as our research on energy and commodities seems to suggest, here is a new set […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Oct 2020)

Recommendations: Treasure hunt This issue is packed with investment recommendations. Car sector, raw materials, technology stocks… we suggest you read it carefully then go on a treasure hunt! Samsung: Temporary mistrust The current economic and strategic rapprochement between the Chinese and South Korean leaders[1] makes us fear American reprisals. One can imagine that it will […]

US Tempted by Petroyuan

Remember! Back in 2017 we anticipated that Saudi Arabia would soon be selling its oil in yuan? This was a highly provocative hypothesis at the time, since the country was then one of the two pillars of the petrodollar system.[1] Two years later, it became clear that export flows of Saudi oil were making a […]

Deep into our archives – Twelve Years of Transformation of the International Monetary System as anticipated by the GEAB

The global systemic crisis has spanned 12 years between its onset in 2008 and its conclusion in 2020, most of which correspond to the ‘decantation phase’ mentioned in the previous article. During that time, the LEAP team has kept an eye on many axes of transformation – governance, geopolitical configuration, economic models, the Middle East, […]

Deep into our archives – The major phases of the ‘global systemic crisis’ as anticipated by the GEAB

The ‘world-after’ is a phrase which was probably uppermost in most people’s minds during the period of global lockdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic. For the authors and readers of the GEAB, it is nothing new; this phrase has been at the centre of our anticipatory analyses since issue No.28 of October 2008. At the […]

Anticipation 2025 : Peak Oil

Everyone agrees that, as announced by the International Energy Agency and OPEC, the next peak oil will be around 2025 (2030 for McKinsey), all sectors of production included, whether conventional or unconventional. After that, the supply will fall or collapse, according to forecasters, in spite of population growth (though we will see later that such […]

Coming soon, the GEAB 133 (March edition synopsis)

The latent financial crisis, the invention of a new world monetary system, the world being shared between China and the United States, American military withdrawal, European disintegration, civil wars and border tensions, the reorganisation of the world map; we don’t know where to look first in the gigantic global reshuffle that is underway. The common […]

The attack on gold as money

For most of recorded history, gold has been the central sign and store of wealth and the more abundant silver has been the coinage of the people. This continued as the basis for sound money right up until the start of the 20th century. Gold bullion was held as bars by national banks and silver […]

Oil: Searching of the tipping point (free article, initially published in November 2018)

The dollar is becoming a currency like any other. Also, oil is following the same path and becoming a source of energy like any other. First, have a look at the following graphs of global energy and oil consumption; one from the International Energy Agency (IEA – US) and the other from OPEC; two sources […]

United States, Fed, T-Bonds: The US federal level will undergo a budgetary slimming regime

The United States and Europe present striking similarities in their destinies. The way Brexit (itself a negative event) manages to free an EU paralysed by vast structural dysfunctions; Trump’s election (so traumatic for the Americans) probably provides an opportunity to redeem the country (and its partners) from a stifling allegiance system. We have repeatedly shown […]