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Investments, trends and recommendations (Feb 2019)

A reminder that our recommendations are not for speculative purposes, therefore short-term, that they don’t aim to win more, but rather to lose less (even nothing) because in the case of a global systemic crisis like the one we are currently seeing, it’s the only rational objective. – Gold-Cryptor: patience! – Cryptocurrencies: a blank year […]

International Finance: Decentralised QE

Have you noticed that all the efforts to regulate debt, derivatives, banks etc., made following the subprime crisis and meeting with varying degrees of success over the last ten years, are currently systematically undermined, including by the most serious players in the financial system? Here are some examples: On the public debt side, the United […]

Nuclear-gas/ France-Germany: Two behemoths to form an Energy Union in Europe

In 2014, in the context of the partly energy-motivated Ukrainian crisis, European citizens became aware that 63 years after the signing of the ECSC Treaty (which, forming the basis of a coal and steel union, was the starting point for the European project) there was no Energy Union in Europe. The price of Russian gas, […]

States-gold-cryptos: the three pillars of the next international currency

Of course, there is this temptation of reverting to national or regional levels. However, there is also the Internet that connects the world lastingly. As a matter of fact globalized human society is trying to find solutions between maintaining open participation in the world, refocusing on regions of economic activity, reinventing national added value, and […]

Coming soon, the February edition of the GEAB (synopsis)

The gradual disappearance of the previous world order’s straitjackets of stability (international organisations, treaties, alliances, various regulations…) is becoming alarming. Will this alarm act as a spur or will it turn out to be a bad counsellor? With the US-Russian exit from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), uncertainties surrounding US-China trade negotiations, the new […]

Eurozone: The banking union as a solution

From a budgetary point of view, this compromise can only lead to a kind of status quo. The institutional architecture will stay close to that drafted by the 2011-2013 reforms that were based on unilateral recoveries in competitiveness. All transfers between states will be conditioned and will do nothing to help rebalance the eurozone. They will […]

Investments, trends and recommendations: Seven ways to secure your wealth in gold

Bullion and Jewellery For centuries, gold coins and jewellery have been used as small-scale private investments and, for many people today, they remain a good place to start. It must be noted that new purchases may be subject to VAT and both purchases will carry a considerable mark-up on the daily spot gold price. However, […]

Gold – A ‘Barbarous Relic’ or a proven store of value?

What international role does gold play today and do recent market trends and new avenues for investment reaffirm the case for including gold in a balanced portfolio? With the holiday season over and stock markets around the world still reeling from a volatile end to 2018, many investors will be wondering where best to store […]

Looming financial crisis: A self-fulfilling narrative?

Happy New Black Clouds? The standard wishes for a Happy New Year seem almost out of place for many, given the black clouds[1] that seem to be gathering over the economy of the United State of America (US)[2] and the political threats to the economy existing in the European Union (EU).[3] The proximate causes are […]

Panorama 2019: 36 “up and down” trends for the year ahead

As every year, LEAP is presenting a brief overview of the major ‘up and down’ trends[1] for the coming year. Besides the intellectual value of this contribution, which, of course, reflects many of the analyses of  our researchers over the last few months, the aim is to provide a better understanding of the main issues […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Oct 2016)

It is time to get rid of Western Sovereign Bonds  Following the previous article on the topic of US Treasuries, it seems clear to our team that it is best to avoid US government bonds at the moment. In fact, there are some more reasons we recommend that you sell all your Western states bonds. […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Nov 2016)

Gold: Stand still Great caution is required on all fronts now that Mr Trump has been elected as president. This principle will transversally mark every one of our recommendations. The gold price chart continues to tell us that we are correct – against all the intuitions from media experts – because, despite a brief rise […]

An evaluation of our anticipations for 2018 (drawn from GEAB No 121 of January 2018): 68% successful

17 Up et 16 Down Each year in December, we release an evaluation of our anticipations presented last January. This time, we end up with a final score of 22.5 out of 33 key tendencies, meaning a 68% success, 7 points less than last year (75%). Here is our success rate graphic: The view we […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Dec 2018)

General recommendation: Find shelters!  You will understand when reading this issue that the clouds are gathering during the end of this year and the beginning of the next. Take out your umbrellas, raincoats and wellingtons! This is not the first time that we have alerted you this way, but the GEAB is intended to signal […]

Cryptocurrencies/Blockchain: From tax to democracy, the real ongoing revolution

Largely criticised by some, glorified by others, cryptocurrencies keep raising questions and represent as many threats as opportunities depending where we stand; whether on the side of citizens, institutions, businesses or governments. After a spectacular rise in valuations, we are currently witnessing a collapse in the capitalisation of most crypto-assets. The euphoria is well behind […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Mar 2017)

General strategy: the eye of the storm Like we started warning in our last GEAB issue, the utmost caution is still required these days. The appearance of recovery, here and there, is either the effect of short-term communication, or sources of disruptions with unpredictable consequences (or both). Our general advice is to stay vigilant and […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (May 2017)

Oil – It’s working In spite of many interests that obviously want to minimise the impact of the agreement on oil production between OPEC and its allies, and doubts related to the sustainability of the deal, it seems that Russians and Saudis are planning to extend the Vienna Agreement[1] until – at least – the […]

Listening to the weak signals of trends: our selection (Jun 2017)

The anticipation work must watch closely the “weak signals”, as futurists used to call them. They are accessible items of information, but hardly reflected within the media, information which provides relevant insight into major changes in society. Paying attention to those signals, interpreting them and cross-referencing them is part of the work of any decision-maker […]