Category: finance
Oil: Displacement of another centre of gravity China, the largest importer of oil, is about to finalise the security of its energy supply system. Its strategy is based on the diversification of resources (nuclear in particular), but as oil remains key to the stabilisation of the world economy, there is no question of leaving it […]
Energy producers, distributors and investors worldwide are currently facing a triple whammy of falling demand, falling capacity and price wars that cannot fail to undermine the international corporate-based energy system that we have all come to rely on. Are countries doomed to repeat the errors of the past, or can the Green Movement work with […]
Digital data is the new black gold; the adage is familiar, but the stakes involved less so. With the COVID-19 pandemic, the world has achieved a two-year digital transformation within two months, says Satya Nadella, head of Microsoft. [1] In fact, the numbers are dizzying: before the health crisis, the Zoom videoconferencing platform had some […]
Insurances – The end of the system as we knew it According to Lloyd’s of London, the insurance industry will have to pay out $203 billion this year and professionals reckon that this pandemic represents the biggest catastrophe their sector has ever suffered. This economic crisis will be coupled with an existential crisis linked to […]
Are the precious metal markets rushing to get ready for the biggest bull run in history? Recent actions by the London Bullion Market Association, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and many international bullion banks could be pointing towards a perfect storm in the precious metals sphere – one that could see a final collapse of the […]
What if the decision of the German Federal Constitutional Court (Bundesverfassungsgericht – BVerfG) of 5 May was to become the first key component of a European political and democratic system, rather than a spanner in the works? This was our initial reaction as the media exploded with articles, each more catastrophic than the last, on […]
The pandemic curves are flattening, European countries are slowly emerging from the containment phase and a new landscape is about to be revealed, whose main features we will try to glimpse to help you find your way more quickly and effectively in this “world after”. The task is threefold: to identify the major societal trends […]
Businesses – Don’t expect a normal recovery in September! A growing proportion of economic and service players are aware of this, but it is worth hammering home the fact that we must anticipate that activity will not be able to resume in ex ante conditions in September. Therefore, everyone needs to take advantage of this […]
Is the US oil industry undergoing a significant shift in its relationship with its government, now accepting levels of influence or direct control that would have been unthinkable only a few months ago? Are the large oil companies, and the supply of energy they oversee, now so important to national security that they must be […]
Many people will see their dreams of radical change disappointed. Yet there will certainly be change! You don’t need to be an eminent guru to understand that the 8 trillion dollars to be injected into the world economy that the G20 leaders have announced,[1] in addition to the 250 trillion dollars of world debt accumulated […]
Since 2008, the GEAB has been talking about the ‘world after’. Now everyone is using this expression. It is therefore time to archive the ‘global systemic crisis of 2008-2020’.[1] The ‘historian of the future’ is the one who will have described what happened over this 12-year period. Now that a chapter of history is coming […]
At a time when the monomaniac media is drawing a smokescreen in front of everyone’s eyes, the GEAB, as always, is focusing its radars on what is going on behind this screen to determine what kind of world is really emerging – rather than those that people are hoping for – reaffirming our characteristic principle […]
Markets/financial products – Do we really need to mention this? You don’t need our insight to realise this, but for the sake of clarity: it’s time to stay away from the financial markets. The strength of the evidence for this says a lot about the psychology of investors and its outlook for the market. Don’t […]
2019 was a bumper year for US stocks and, while much of Europe and the Far East faced tougher growth conditions brought on by more local concerns (Brexit, Hong-Kong etc.), full steam ahead was the order of the day. As the year reached an end, dollars continued to flood home and indirect stimulus through the […]
Wars have undoubtedly generated plagues. But do plagues generate wars? From a systemic point of view, the pandemic should be enough to seal the fate of the old system, inaugurate the next one and save us from going down the “war” route… that is if, indeed, this route has really been avoided. Let us remember […]
It would be hard not to mention Covid-19 in this coming bulletin. But it’s also hard to think straight and bring the characteristic GEAB perspective into the current media hysteria. We will nevertheless lend ourselves to this challenge, conscious that the GEAB perspective can still offer some pertinent insights into the understanding of this crisis, […]
(what the GEAB said in September 2019) In reality, the IMF is not up to the refinancing challenge implemented by its creators. Indeed, how can it face the 22 trillion US public debt and repeated threats of US non-payment? Nor is it able to cope with the debt problems of the major European states or, […]
Gold: ready to shine even brighter? 2019 was a big year in Precious Metals (PMs). After two years of declining prices following the 2016 peak, a floor was reached around $1180 in August 2018 and the bull market ensued in line with our anticipations outlined in January 2019.[1] The summer saw a gain of over […]