Category: finance
Markets/financial products – Do we really need to mention this? You don’t need our insight to realise this, but for the sake of clarity: it’s time to stay away from the financial markets. The strength of the evidence for this says a lot about the psychology of investors and its outlook for the market. Don’t […]
2019 was a bumper year for US stocks and, while much of Europe and the Far East faced tougher growth conditions brought on by more local concerns (Brexit, Hong-Kong etc.), full steam ahead was the order of the day. As the year reached an end, dollars continued to flood home and indirect stimulus through the […]
Wars have undoubtedly generated plagues. But do plagues generate wars? From a systemic point of view, the pandemic should be enough to seal the fate of the old system, inaugurate the next one and save us from going down the “war” route… that is if, indeed, this route has really been avoided. Let us remember […]
It would be hard not to mention Covid-19 in this coming bulletin. But it’s also hard to think straight and bring the characteristic GEAB perspective into the current media hysteria. We will nevertheless lend ourselves to this challenge, conscious that the GEAB perspective can still offer some pertinent insights into the understanding of this crisis, […]
(what the GEAB said in September 2019) In reality, the IMF is not up to the refinancing challenge implemented by its creators. Indeed, how can it face the 22 trillion US public debt and repeated threats of US non-payment? Nor is it able to cope with the debt problems of the major European states or, […]
Gold: ready to shine even brighter? 2019 was a big year in Precious Metals (PMs). After two years of declining prices following the 2016 peak, a floor was reached around $1180 in August 2018 and the bull market ensued in line with our anticipations outlined in January 2019.[1] The summer saw a gain of over […]
For the last ten years we have been told that, while the world economy took a hit during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008/9, it is now recovering well. Mario Draghi did his magic, the Fed saved the day and American securities, in particular, are now going from strength to strength. Climbing well above […]
Oil/Libya: War or US shale collapse? In Libya, General Haftar, mainly supported by the Americans, is not giving up. The reason is simple: he is acting under orders to block the oil wells of a country which is seeing its production collapsing, thus giving some support to the plunging prices of crude oil… and slowing […]
Bitcoin: Digital Gold The fairly sharp rise in the price of Bitcoin at the time of the Iranian-American crisis confirms the intuition we had in June: Bitcoin is acting as a safe haven. This observation leads us to recommend that you keep your Bitcoin, or even add moderately to them, in the light of the […]
As we do every year, GEAB by LEAP is presenting a landscape of the key trends for the coming year. Besides the intellectual value of this LEAP contribution, which, of course, reflects many of the analyses of our researchers over the last few months, we aim to provide a better understanding of the main issues […]
So January of the famous year 2020 has come! And with it comes our global panorama of trends and expectations. The task of presenting this is, perhaps, even harder than usual, at the dawn of a year capable of delivering the worst as well as the best, or even the worst in anticipation of the best […]
Corporate: Watch your back! The world is realigning itself according to its major regions. This trend, identified a long time ago by the GEAB and repeatedly validated, obviously doesn’t only concern government dynamics. It has direct consequences for companies as well. Particularly this one: don’t abandon your foundations! Certainly, a company needs to grow. And […]
As we do every December, we have completed an evaluation of the trend anticipations we published last January. This time, we have ended up with a final score of 27.5 over 39 key trends, or a 70.5% success rate, 2.5 points higher than last year (68%). We organised the “up & down” trends for 2019 […]
This in-depth assessment of our anticipations for the year will be used to update our map of major global transformational trends. We present here a synthesis of a year of anticipations tested against reality and placed in a more classical temporal continuum (past and present). This meticulous work is specially intended to enable everyone to […]
The immense stagnation of a eurozone trapped in a crumbling EU has caused many missouts. But two game-changers are shaking the monetary union from its lethargy. We are speaking of: Facebook’s announcement of the launch of its virtual currency, the libra, which has created panic among state officials and, at least for the time being, […]
Aramco’s IPO: another game-changer Saudi Aramco is a wonderful illustration of the problem that we see beginning to be solved in 2020 with the establishment of a new monetary and financial system – the old one being no longer in line with the global economy of the 21st century. Since 2018, we have regularly heard […]
We have been anticipating the arrival of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) for a year.[1] And it was Christine Lagarde’s speeches at the IMF last November, in particular, that encouraged us to do so. Inevitably, Christine Lagarde’s appointment as head of the ECB indicates that this type of agenda is likely to be accelerated in […]
The above title is provocative in a media world rightly focused on ecological catastrophes, popular discontent, risks of war and the financial crisis of 2020. But our mission is not to repeat what everyone knows – that the chaotic world of the beginning of the 21st century is a dangerous place… After all, hasn’t the […]