This anticipation is not very original but it must nevertheless be faced with all the lucidity required. It is hardly a hypothesis, but rather a certainty: the allied European far rights will constitute the most consistent and therefore powerful parliamentary group in the next European Parliament, whatever their results in the previous national elections. What will count is the trans-European nature of their progression.
Minorities at national level, dominant at European level
The mechanism is simple: a political force structured at the trans-European level (presenting a common list and program in several EU countries) automatically becomes a dominant parliamentary group in the European Parliament, even if it gets only small scores in each country… knowing the scores likely to be realised by the far-right parties in several countries during the next European election of 2019 are far from being “very small”. Paradoxically, it is the national nature of the European election that will serve the nationalist agendas of one of the few political movements organised at the trans-European level: the far right.
In concrete terms, the political group set up in June 2015 by Marine Le Pen’s FN and Geert Wilders’ PVV in response to the difficulties they met in creating a far right-wing political group in the European Parliament in 2014, the Europe of Nations and Freedoms (ENL), is composed of 40 members and 7 parties from 7 different countries (minimum number of countries required to form a political group in the EP).
[…] To summarise, three European parliamentary groups today share the far right of the European political spectrum, two of which are British (ELDD) or British-Polish (CRE) emanations, and the third a Franco-Dutch creation (ENL). One can understand in this simple statement the ENL’s potential for rallying in 2019.
Of course, the other prospect of ENL consolidation is the increase in scores that these parties are likely to achieve in 2019.
The corona crisis has been the trigger for the EU to finally start issuing common bonds. It was a modest and hard-won step forward. In the midst of the flames, [...]
The editorial GEAB team decided to share, exceptionally, with its readers an excerpt of the as yet unpublished document entitled "Community or Empire"; a book written by Franck Biancheri in [...]
A long time ago, in 1998, Franck Biancheri, our regretfully departed director of studies, signed an anticipatory article entitled: « 2009, when Europe ends up in the hands of the grandsons [...]
Since its creation, the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin has been designed among other things to inform European public opinion and decision makers about the fact that the global geopolitical reconfiguration [...]
The financial crisis followed by the debt crisis has led to a substantial change in the mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB) and to more political provisions. The ECB [...]
There is a lot about epilogues in this issue! In the case of the EU (a phase in the construction of Europe which came into being on 7 February 1992 [...]
There’s no need to wait for the results of the election to anticipate some of the major features of the new Europe that will be established after June 2019. Certainly, [...]
The prospects for social reorganisation that can be imagined from the current health crisis are enormous. We have, therefore, decided to focus on Europe, about which we are much more [...]