ANALYSIS
On 30 March, we issued a “warning” regarding US Treasury auctions that were likely to fail around 8–9 April. Poor sales – meaning that US debt can no longer find buyers at reasonable prices – are likely to accelerate the currently relatively quiet but de facto ongoing process of the debt system’s collapse.
What we feared to the extent that we wished to warn our readers outside our usual publication schedule has indeed come to pass: the auctions of 8 and 9 April signal and exacerbate the now unsustainable nature of US debt and the entire debt system of the last 20 years.
Combined with the private debt crisis started in January with Blackrock’s freeze on redemptions[1], this major stage in the monetary paradigm shift increasingly resembles a corporate subprime crisis, where it is no longer individuals who will lose their homes to the banks, but companies that will lose their solid assets (property, infrastructure, etc.). All this is happening in the absence of any control on the part of governments (and particularly the United States) to bail out anyone.
The sale of 30-year bonds on 9 April was indeed a failed auction
The results of the 22 billion 30-year bond auction on 9 April 2026 are as follows:
‘Indicator – Result – 6-month average – High yield 4.876% 4.745% – WI ~4.858% — Tail
~+2 bps +0.2 bps – Bid-to-cover 2.39x 2.42x – Indirects 64.14% 66.0% – Directs 24.23%
24.0% – Primary dealers 11.62% 9.9%”.
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