GEAB 204

WEAK SIGNALS

Geo-agriculture: From adaptation to systemic exhaustion

During one of his recent radio appearances, agroclimatologist Serge Zaka spoke of a form of ‘great replacement’[1]  – applied to living organisms, not in the political sense of the term, but to describe the forced evolution of agricultural and tree species under the impact of accelerating climate change, as if living organisms, constrained by a climate that has become unstable, were compelled to change their geography, their temporal patterns and, implicitly, their very logic of production.

Admittedly, the seasons are losing their regularity and experiencing late frosts with effects on vernalisation, as well as droughts or excess water, calling into question the entire thermo-agricultural model. The stakes are therefore economic and territorial, for if ecological conditions shift, then crops follow, and with them the agricultural landscapes, local economies and know-how, and, even more intimately, dietary habits. In short, what we eat tomorrow will not only be different because we have chosen it, but because what was available yesterday will no longer be so.

In France, this forced shift in crops is already evident in fruit growing, where certain varieties historically adapted to specific climatic conditions are becoming increasingly vulnerable. This is particularly true of the Golden Delicious, once the quintessential ‘zero-risk’ fruit tree, ideal for ensuring plentiful and regular harvests; it is a variety that depends on a sufficiently cold winter to properly break dormancy, followed by a relatively stable spring to ensure flowering and fruit set. However, climate change is disrupting this sequence, due to excessively mild winters, early flowering, more destructive late frosts and heatwaves that are now undermining the regularity of harvests.

INRAE points out that the lack of winter cold is already disrupting the growth of a wide range of fruit trees[2], whilst experts anticipate a gradual shift of the most favourable growing areas towards cooler regions, further north or at higher altitudes. Consequently, the question is no longer simply whether France will continue to produce apples, but where certain varieties can still be grown under economically viable conditions — without major changes to production systems or adverse environmental impacts, particularly through the restructuring of supply chains and transport flows[3].