GEAB August 2022

For our traditional dive into the archives in August, we have logically chosen the major theme of this year 2022: the entry of Russian forces in Ukraine. The interest of this exercise is primordial to our work of anticipation, and it makes more sense on such a burning subject. As we mentioned in our March issue (Anticipating in wartime), “we anticipate badly at 15 days distance because we are too disturbed by the increase in points of view, information and personal feelings; we only anticipate well 1 to 5 years ahead, when the trends are clear and the vision remote.” Going back to our first anticipations on this topic (from 2013) means taking a step back, rewinding the film, referring to the past, then looking at the current events to be able to project ourselves into the future again. We will do this as early as September.

The 2022 war is nothing but a continuation of the 2014 crisis: a confrontation by proxy between the East and West, essentially between Russia and the United States, which have dragged the European Union along, a confrontation in which Ukraine, against its fundamental interests, is forced to choose sides. Therefore our recommendations of 2014 and 2015 remain relevant in 2022 as well (see below). This crisis had a flashpoint in 2014, followed by a calmer, more diplomatic episode, symbolised by the Normandy format and the Minsk Agreements, which unfortunately did not last long. But the clashes in the east never stopped and intensified with the Russian invasion earlier this year.