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Second quarter 2019: Epilogue of the creation of Greater Israel (excerpt / GEAB 133, March 2019)

We estimate that there is a very high (70%) probability of the imminent launch of a rapid and brutal birthing process of Greater Israel. Figure 1: Comparison between the presentation of the Israeli districts in the Wikipedia in French (left) and the Wikipedia in Hebrew (right) in their version of August 2015. The Wikipedia in […]

NEOM, between a New Jerusalem and the Library of Alexandria (excerpt / GEAB 125, May 2018)

The Middle Eastern mega-city project called NEOM[1] that we have told you about in a previous issue is a real reason to hope. As mentioned last time, the Saudis would not proceed with this project if they truly had in mind an open conflict with Iran. This project is first and foremost a symbol of […]

Israel-Palestine: Somewhere between dream and nightmare (excerpt / GEAB 120, Dec. 2017)

We can not help going back to the Middle East this month, simply because what is happening now looks so much like we had been anticipating for several years and announced at the beginning of 2017 in our list of “up and down trends”: Saudi Arabia’s emergence as a new strong player in the region, […]

Saudi Arabia-Israel-Iran: The creation of a Middle East 3.0 (excerpt / GEAB 119, Nov. 2017)

The end of the year will be rich in surprises and escalation risks, as we have been saying for the last two months. Currently, all eyes are on the Middle East, the world’s powder keg, and on the tensions emerging around Lebanon, involving nothing less than protagonists like the United States, Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia […]

Turkish Elections – The impossibility of chaos in Turkey (excerpt / GEAB 98, Oct. 2015)

We have repeatedly analyzed that only the regional powers would be able to restore calm in the Middle East and resolve the Daesh issue, the common enemy on which (almost) everyone has agreed. However, we have stated that the US or Russian interventions would only have the effect of exacerbating tensions. Repeatedly missed opportunities Suffice […]

Military coup d’etat in Egypt – 5 to 10 lost years for Middle Eastern democracy… to the political explosion in Saudi Arabia? (excerpt / GEAB 77, Sept. 2013)

The West couldn’t help but acknowledge the Morsi’s overthrow by the military in Egypt on 3 July last. Fortunately, everyone quickly realised that one can hardly claim democracy and greet a military coup d’état. Certainly, the appearance of a large popular movement was able, for a few days, to delude international opinion on the nature […]

Israel 2020: Two scenarios for the future (excerpt / GEAB 7, Sept. 2006)

Scenario 1: Towards the end of the State of Israel / Scenario 2: Towards a durable Israeli state Continuing its in-depth analysis of the consequences of the end of the world order which had been the legacy of WWII, LEAP/E2020 started several months ago a strategic reflexion on the future of Israel. In this number […]

Middle East Retrospective: 7 Scenarios for one Vision

This summer of 2019, in which the Middle East continues to be in the spotlight, we have found and gathered 7 scenarios which are emblematic of our vision of the region’s future. They will be presented here exactly as originally published. The originality of our team’s anticipations of the Middle East region’s future is thus […]

African Union: The end of the CFA franc (from the GEAB 110 / Dec 2016)

Africa! The second largest continent in the world after Asia, both in size and population[1], and also one of the poorest[2] is shaken by internal conflicts and wars. But above all, it’s a continent with one of the youngest age pyramids in the world[3]; so many opportunities open for the future and for hope in […]

The end of the American domination over the digital world

The ongoing trade war between the US and China has recently taken a new turn with the involvement of the digital giants, under obvious pressure from the White House. Alleging that the company is a threat to national security, Donald Trump has placed Huawei on the list of undesirable companies in the USA,[1] pushing Google,[2] […]

NATO’s Budget Crisis

Since the 2014 Newport Summit, NATO has been proud to have obtained from member states a reaffirmation of the famous principle of 2% of GDP allocated to military spending.[1] But the reality is darker. Figure 1 – GDP share allocated to military spending, by country, 2014 and 2018. Source: CNBC.   Even though Trump or […]

Middle East: The summer will be hot

We would like to remind you that one of the main guiding principles for analysing North American foreign policy and current events in and around the Middle East is the annexation by Israel of all or part of the Occupied Territories.[1] Preparations are underway. The sending of US troops close to Iran is intended to […]

Coming soon, the GEAB 135 ! Synopsis

We live in an exciting time when elation over long-awaited change is mixed with fear of the risks involved. Our anticipation concerning the reorganisation of the Middle East through the annexation by Israel of at least part of the occupied territories is in the process of validation: Netanyahu has now clearly announced it and everything […]

A theoretical exercise – NATO: What happens if Israel attacks Turkey?

NATO is a 70-year-old baby boomer… just like the Organisation of American States (69), Mao Tse Tong’s Communist Republic of China, the Federal Republic of Germany, the Democratic Republic of Germany, the Treaty of Rome (72 years), the State of Israel (71 years), the Geneva Convention, George Orwell’s 1984 novel[1], Antonio Guterres, Bernard Arnault, Donald […]

The world after Trump: What undermined the status quo ante?

If we first look at the number of driving forces, there are a large number, and although some are well known and clear, others are more obscure and less well understood: Society: growing real and perceived inequality It seems that in most countries, the gap between extremely rich and poor has been growing in the […]

GAFAM – Lilliputian states facing tech giants

One of the major challenges of our next decade will almost certainly be the relationship between nation states and the world’s major tech groups, known as GAFAM (Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple and Microsoft). These companies are indeed extremely important within the global economy and they are becoming entities able to compete with and make an […]

Second quarter 2019: Epilogue of the creation of Greater Israel

We estimate that there is a very high (70%) probability of the imminent launch of a rapid and brutal birthing process of Greater Israel. Figure 1: Comparison between the presentation of the Israeli districts in the Wikipedia in French (left) and the Wikipedia in Hebrew (right) in their version of August 2015. The Wikipedia in […]

European elections / Europe 2040: ‘And now for something completely different’

(A handbook for the actors of the European campaign) There is a lot about epilogues in this issue! In the case of the EU (a phase in the construction of Europe which came into being on 7 February 1992 in Maastricht), the upcoming elections will seal the vision it has held for 27 years. And […]