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2020-2030: From SpaceX to the next ‘Star Wars’

The arrival of private satellite launchers – inaugurated by SpaceX – is a major game-changer, opening the way for space privatisation. If we combine this trend with the older one of a multi-polarisation (since the arrival of China, India, Brazil, etc.) of the skies, as well as the diversification of the uses of space (observation, […]

November US Elections: Three scenarios in anticipation of an electoral crisis

Our last article on the American election dates from four months ago (‘US Election 2020 – A New America takes over’ – GEAB, 15 May 2020).[1] Among the many arguments suggesting a significant risk of process derailment, we identified concerns about the management of the election; we believed that the change in voting access was […]

EU-Africa 2025 : Moria Fires and souring relations, A Paper from our Junior Team

Europe’s largest refugee camp, Moria on Lesbos, has burned to the ground[1]. 12 000 people have lost the closest thing they had to a home and Europe’s politicians are issuing statements of shock and horror, even though they have been well aware of the drastic situation in Moria for years. NGOs go as far as […]

2021 – The Youth Revolutions

The coronavirus crisis is moving the world into the future. This is true on absolutely all fronts and it has become considerably more complicated to observe the immense societal change. In the thirty or so pages of this issue, emerging themes such as the wild (private) colonisation of space and the immense risks involved, or […]

Transatlantic 21: The centre of gravity of the transatlantic relationship is shifting towards Europe

Since 2006, the global systemic crisis described by the GEAB has referred to the ‘system’ founded in 1945 in the aftermath of the WW2.[1] Nevertheless, at the heart of this world order is the transatlantic relationship, a link between the USA and Europe based on a double predicate: Europe needs the American guardian so that, […]

US Election 2020 – A New America takes over

The next US presidential election, despite its relatively normal exterior, is already showing some new features. For example: 1/ It’s not the main point of interest on the planet; 2/ Because of the pandemic, the Democratic primary did not really take place, but this did not prevent the nomination of the presumptive candidate; 3/ New […]

GEAB 145 Synopsis – What New World Order?

The pandemic curves are flattening, European countries are slowly emerging from the containment phase and a new landscape is about to be revealed, whose main features we will try to glimpse to help you find your way more quickly and effectively in this “world after”. The task is threefold: to identify the major societal trends […]

GEAB Community – Let’s develop a collective understanding of the challenges of the future

Dear Readers, In this time of crisis, many people are thinking about the solutions needed in order to get out of it and create a new world. Since 2008, the GEAB team has demonstrated its capacity, and therefore its credentials, to anticipate events and the systemic crisis. We are now inviting you to become part […]

‘Covidian’ Geopolitics – The American lockdown

While the need for the digitalisation of the international monetary system described earlier is being reinforced by the financial crisis triggered by the pandemic, one finds in many articles on this topic the same fixed idea: allowing the world to bypass the American system of sanctions.[1] Indeed, these digital currency projects do not date back […]

A Historian’s view of the COVID-19 Crisis

Political anticipation is LEAP’s method of “rationalisation of the future”.[1] In fact, it is very close to the “historical method” [2] in the sense that it is accessible to all and aids the social actor in adapting to the complex world which constitutes his new environment. Because of this, its practitioners have often been defined […]

2020: General mobilisation against climate change

Warning: Environmentalism, or the preservation of the environment in an overpopulated world, largely deserves enlightened debate, intelligent policies and effective investments. However, we are using the word “climatism” (in the absence of a better word) in the more extreme ideological sense, where environmental preservation becomes the clothing of a war machine against rationality and liberty […]

The birth of techno-climatism

History tends to remember the 1920s as the “roaring twenties”, dominated by joie de vivre, jazz and the Charleston. But this is the story as told by the Americans. On the European side, the population had just experienced the absolute horror of the First World War and was living through an immense post-traumatic shock, of which […]

What will post-COVID-19 Europe look like?

Reduced mobility,[1] the tourism crisis,[2] the green economy,[3] dematerialisation of the economy,[4] Euroland,[5] digitalisation of central bank currencies,[6] a radical reform of the international financial system, disruption of the European banking system,[7] the end of liberalism, a paradigm shift and, even, our anticipation of a stabilisation phase in 2020[8]… As we entered this new decade, […]

Special report – Pensions: an inevitable paradigm shift

For the last ten years we have been told that, while the world economy took a hit during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008/9, it is now recovering well. Mario Draghi did his magic, the Fed saved the day and American securities, in particular, are now going from strength to strength. Climbing well above […]

Spill-over section… items which we don’t have the space to develop, but which we definitely want to talk to you about…

Oil/Libya: War or US shale collapse? In Libya, General Haftar, mainly supported by the Americans, is not giving up. The reason is simple: he is acting under orders to block the oil wells of a country which is seeing its production collapsing, thus giving some support to the plunging prices of crude oil… and slowing […]

Decade 2020 – “Futuritis”: From a crisis of the future to totalitarianism

With the neologism futuritis, we wish to denote a disease of the future – a disease whose development process begins with a deficiency, followed by an eruption and ending with high fever. Future deficiency in the 2000s: The Internet was already here, as well as supranational levels of governance to be completed (the EU in […]

Geopolitics: 2020, a year under the sign of Mars

A non-exhaustive review of global risk by continents/regions Geopolitical tensions will dominate the year 2020. From the most structural to the most cyclical, the reasons are: The multipolar world is no longer content just doing business and now wishes to defend its trade routes and hunting grounds (Europe, China, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran […]

Panorama 2020: 32 key trends

As we do every year, GEAB by LEAP is presenting a landscape of the key trends for the coming year. Besides the intellectual value of this LEAP contribution, which, of course, reflects many of the analyses of our researchers over the last few months, we aim to provide a better understanding of the main issues […]