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A theoretical exercise – NATO: What happens if Israel attacks Turkey?

NATO is a 70-year-old baby boomer… just like the Organisation of American States (69), Mao Tse Tong’s Communist Republic of China, the Federal Republic of Germany, the Democratic Republic of Germany, the Treaty of Rome (72 years), the State of Israel (71 years), the Geneva Convention, George Orwell’s 1984 novel[1], Antonio Guterres, Bernard Arnault, Donald […]

The world after Trump: What undermined the status quo ante?

If we first look at the number of driving forces, there are a large number, and although some are well known and clear, others are more obscure and less well understood: Society: growing real and perceived inequality It seems that in most countries, the gap between extremely rich and poor has been growing in the […]

GAFAM – Lilliputian states facing tech giants

One of the major challenges of our next decade will almost certainly be the relationship between nation states and the world’s major tech groups, known as GAFAM (Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple and Microsoft). These companies are indeed extremely important within the global economy and they are becoming entities able to compete with and make an […]

Second quarter 2019: Epilogue of the creation of Greater Israel

We estimate that there is a very high (70%) probability of the imminent launch of a rapid and brutal birthing process of Greater Israel. Figure 1: Comparison between the presentation of the Israeli districts in the Wikipedia in French (left) and the Wikipedia in Hebrew (right) in their version of August 2015. The Wikipedia in […]

European elections / Europe 2040: ‘And now for something completely different’

(A handbook for the actors of the European campaign) There is a lot about epilogues in this issue! In the case of the EU (a phase in the construction of Europe which came into being on 7 February 1992 in Maastricht), the upcoming elections will seal the vision it has held for 27 years. And […]

Global systemic crisis: A leap of faith

The gradual disappearance of the previous world order’s straitjackets of stability (international organisations, treaties, alliances, various regulations…) is becoming alarming. Will this alarm act as a spur or will it turn out to be a bad counsellor? That is the whole question. Certainly, we do need to change the international system (financial, monetary, democratic, of […]

Coming soon, the February edition of the GEAB (synopsis)

The gradual disappearance of the previous world order’s straitjackets of stability (international organisations, treaties, alliances, various regulations…) is becoming alarming. Will this alarm act as a spur or will it turn out to be a bad counsellor? With the US-Russian exit from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), uncertainties surrounding US-China trade negotiations, the new […]

Panorama 2019: 36 “up and down” trends for the year ahead

As every year, LEAP is presenting a brief overview of the major ‘up and down’ trends[1] for the coming year. Besides the intellectual value of this contribution, which, of course, reflects many of the analyses of  our researchers over the last few months, the aim is to provide a better understanding of the main issues […]

UN 2017: When the United Nations meets the fate of the League of Nations in the 30’s

When members of the UN Security Council wage war at each other… It is clear that in a supposedly common struggle against a common enemy – the Islamic State – two great powers (and their “allies”) now oppose each other, USA against Russia, and the irony is that each relies on the legitimacy of the […]

The GEAB team’s Future Events Calendar

Political anticipation does not work using crystal balls. “Future data” represents the raw material for its analyses: elections, summits, and various meetings are elements which allow us to cast light on a future of facts. Since June 2016, the GEAB team has decided to share with its readers the raw data which underpins our anticipations. […]

“Thanks” to China, EU will adopt the pro-trade protectionist model (what the GEAB said in March 2018)

As we all know, Donald Trump kicked off the reinvention of trade relationships by imposing customs barriers on steel and aluminium.  In addition to the duty of protecting this industry and the jobs connected with it, he was motivated by the strategic nature of this sector which is intrinsically linked to the army. Economy, employment, […]

African Union: One road, One continent, One currency. The end of the CFA franc

Africa! The second largest continent in the world after Asia, both in size and population[1], and also one of the poorest[2] is shaken by internal conflicts and wars. But above all, it’s a continent with one of the youngest age pyramids in the world[3]; so many opportunities open for the future and for hope in […]

Multipolar World 2022: India’s Power Strategy via Washington

In view of China’s demographic being overtaken by India by 2022, India will use the structuring rivalry of the new world order emerging between the United States and China to advance its own interests, by operating a tactical rapprochement with Washington. This new partnership will be part of a struggle against Chinese trade surpluses and […]

Calendar of Future Events – October 2017/February 2018

Three times a year, as part of its decision-making toolbox, the GEAB team prepares for you a factual map of the next four to six months. . July 2017 – June 2018: Visegrad Group – Rotating Presidency Figure 1 – Visegrad Group. Source: Wikipedia   Hungary is holding the rotating presidency of the Visegrad Group […]

United Kingdom: Towards a May-xit

“Since there is no future, the wanderings of the past are back in Europe”. On this topic, our team finds interesting to identify some sort of an echo of the Continental Blockade[1] within the Brexit affair. There will be of course no strict parallel, but this parallel might show that Brexit is at least as […]

Clash in the Sea of Azov  : What the GEAB stated five months ago (GEAB N°126 – June 2018)

Ukraine continues to create a significant barrier between Europe and Russia, forcing EU member states to abandon the dynamics of community to preserve interests intrinsically linked to the fluidity of their relations with Russia. Individually, these countries (Italy, Austria, Hungary, Greece, Germany, France, etc.), in a more or less ostentatious way, are ignoring the Ukrainian […]

Weak signals: Trends in a changing world

The Food Blockchain Waste, traceability requirements, increased food risks, decentralised production, the costs of this global food-industry, consumer prices: Consumers and industry players are becoming increasingly demanding about transparency within the agri-food sector, the origin and composition of products and the processes involved in their transformation. Manufacturers, producers, suppliers, distributors and consumers: We are living […]

A changing paradigm: Glimpses of what is coming after the global “nationalist” wave (or From Trump to what?)

 We hereby inaugurate a series of articles by the title « Changing paradigm » aimed at anticipating the different economic and political models that are emerging on the horizon of the new multipolar world, their expansion processes and modes of interaction. Introduction: the scene is set The election of President Trump was clearly an important expression of […]