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Category: geopolitics

Cities of the future: New ambitions, new players, new divides

As we diligently observe the geopolitical shifts in our world each month, the analysis of futuristic city projects and new urban developments proves to be exceptionally revealing. Like dreams, these projects unveil our hopes and fears, ultimately reflecting the visions of perfect, celestial, or ideal cities that their sponsors aspire to create. In embracing this […]

Thirty-one Key Trends for 2024

Geopolitics: Asymmetrical Recomposition 1 – American election fog disrupts global visibility The fog surrounding the American elections is disrupting global visibility. What will this lack of visibility mean for the outcome of the American election? Claiming to be the world’s leading democracy, the US political system has always been fine-tuned, and for decades, like clockwork: […]

Mega-Trends for 2024: Real Risks, False Fears

“Be greedy when others are fearful”[1] The great feature of 2024 is its jam-packed electoral calendar. This year, almost three billion people will be voting in 76 countries, including major ones like India, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, Russia, South Africa, Algeria, Rwanda and, of course, the United States. All these countries find themselves in a […]

2030 – Latin America, the new epicentre in the US-China Economic Battle

By January 1st, 2024, Argentina was expected to become a member of the BRICS bloc, alongside Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates[1]. However, Milei’s election as President abruptly reversed the country’s diplomatic trajectory, with a very marked pro-American shift, embodied in the desire to dollarise the economy. Such a choice implies […]

Editorial – World order plate tectonics

Similar to the gradual movement of continents, the reshaping of the global order is a protracted and gradual phenomenon when examined on a monthly scale. While marked by intense clashes that give rise to mountain ranges and definitive separations resulting in straits, seas, or oceans, geopolitical plate tectonics unfolds over an extended period. Between the […]

Israel-Hamas: The Other Scenario… “Thinking the unthinkable”

The conflict will be resolved in the short term and will allow the region to integrate and open up to all its potential. This is what we presented last month, in line with our work on the future of the Middle East over the last seventeen years. This scenario stays solid, we think. However, it […]

Editorial – 2025-2030: Fast-track Creative Destruction

Anticipation means always looking a little further ahead and striving to think the unthinkable. So, when all the signs point to destruction, to collapse, we need to remain clear-headed so as not to overlook the elements of renewal, the signs of creation. Joseph Schumpeter and his theory of creative destruction is useful in this regard. […]

Green Ecosystems: Approaching the point of no-return in the Global Forest Crisis

Forests are far more than just verdant scenery. They are essential ecosystems, hubs of biodiversity, with a pivotal role in upholding ecological equilibrium and sustaining human existence. Among their myriad advantages, three significant roles are prominent: the stabilisation of soil, the preservation of drinking water and, maybe the most important one, forests are the lungs […]

Geopolitics: The logic of force returns

Logically, the international governance invented by the West after two world wars to create the conditions for peace was based on the defence of weak players (Palestinians, Armenians, Saharawis, etc.) against strong players (Israel, Azerbaijan, Morocco, etc.). It is morally undeniable that a peace system is designed to curb the expansionist ambitions of those who […]

Editorial: When weapons are all that’s left to communicate

The transition from the world ‘before’ to the world ‘after’ that we have so often analysed and commented on in our publications continues. Today, this transition is taking on a violent aspect. The Russian-Ukrainian war marks a return to armed conflict on the European continent. The absence of a speedy resolution underscores the challenges in […]

2024 – 2027 – The far right takes power in Europe, with or without the traditional right: the end of the multi-party system and the European political and democratic exception

The political landscape of the European Union is undergoing a paradoxical reconfiguration: ideas from the right, and even more so from the far right, are on the rise; yet the traditional conservative right is living out its final hours, at least as an autonomous political force. This is due to the very strong polarisation of […]

Global Economic Panorama 2024: Purchasing power crisis, personal debt, SME bankruptcies, real estate, reindustrialisation. It’s a make-or-break time in Europe!

Everyone knows that what doesn’t bend, breaks[1]. This is the short-term threat to the European Union’s economy. The supranational operation of its institutions is inflexible, and in the international economic competition in which it has found itself, it is up against much more agile competitors. At present, a fall in living standards, fuelled by inflation[2] […]

Editorial: Multipolar World 2023 – 2024. The Advantage of the Global South

The diplomatic return revealed a clear advantage for the Global South in the concert of nations, marked by the BRICS summit in the first place, announcing an expansion to six new countries: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Ethiopia, Iran and Argentina[1]. This decision demonstrates the confidence these countries have in their own […]

Five years of China’s Reinvention: The Emergence of a new Geopolitical Model

To be fair, political anticipation requires us to look back at past forecasts. This is what the LEAP team does every August by delving into the GEAB archives. This year, we went back to 2017 to rediscover our anticipations on China’s global power. While China’s position on the world stage is complex in relation to […]

Artificial Intelligence, the Labour market, Social inequalities, Digital currency – 2027: The West introduces the universal income to save the victims of AI

From agriculture and printing press to the Internet, all technological advances have had socio-economic consequences, leading to profound changes in society. Easy access to the power of artificial intelligence will be no exception. This revolution concerns higher education graduates, who will be the first victims of the automation of work. This will increase several types […]

Editorial: When Access to Human Resources becomes a Geopolitical challenge

International relations and geopolitical tensions are fuelled by a myriad of factors, the most well-known of which is access to mineral resources and agricultural products. The microprocessor war reveals new tensions linked to the new economies.[1] Indeed, as soon as a resource essential to the smooth running of an economy becomes scarce, the framework for […]

Degrowth: The major challenges of the global demographic winter

Our work in anticipation and the reflection on time that it encourages, have made us particularly sensitive to the fact that we do not all live in the same temporalities. One person’s future is another’s present or past, both in terms of our objective reality (e.g. technological) and our understanding of that reality (accurate but […]

2023 – 2025: US Banking Crisis, Bank Run, European Digital Wallets, Digital Currencies and Cryptos: The Necessary Break for the Reinvention of the Western Economic System

Never let a crisis go to waste. The US regional banking crisis continues to gather pace. As out of control as the situation seems, our team believes that the American and European political and financial authorities see it as a necessary evil to reinvent their economic system. This reinvention is a matter of survival for […]