For our traditional dive into the archives in August, we have logically chosen the major theme of this year 2022: the entry of Russian forces in Ukraine. The interest of this exercise is primordial to our work of anticipation, and it makes more sense on such a burning subject. As we mentioned in our March issue (Anticipating in wartime), “we anticipate badly at 15 days distance because we are too disturbed by the increase in points of view, information and personal feelings; we only anticipate well 1 to 5 years ahead, when the trends are clear and the vision remote.” Going back to our first anticipations on this topic (from 2013) means taking a step back, rewinding the film, referring to the past, then looking at the current events to be able to project ourselves into the future again. We will do this as early as September.
The 2022 war is nothing but a continuation of the 2014 crisis: a confrontation by proxy between the East and West, essentially between Russia and the United States, which have dragged the European Union along, a confrontation in which Ukraine, against its fundamental interests, is forced to choose sides. Therefore our recommendations of 2014 and 2015 remain relevant in 2022 as well (see below). This crisis had a flashpoint in 2014, followed by a calmer, more diplomatic episode, symbolised by the Normandy format and the Minsk Agreements, which unfortunately did not last long. But the clashes in the east never stopped and intensified with the Russian invasion earlier this year.
The French and Dutch « Noes » broke the constitutional march projected by the European institutions and the governments. The unexpected freeze of the ratification process all around the EU [...]
In this beginning of 2006, the project of constitutional treaty is still at the centre of most EU discussions. Does this mean that the process of ratification is being rejuvenated [...]
We estimate to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the [...]
The American and Iranian decisions coming into effect the week of March 20-26, 2006 will catalyse seven sectoral crises into a total crisis, affecting the whole planet in the political, [...]
The crisis anticipated for the end of March 2006 will provide a serious test for Euroland and will determine whether the Euro is sustainable or not. The significant fall of [...]
M3 is the decisive factor … As illustrated by most of the 9 indicators described in this third issue, the past weeks have confirmed how decisive the US Federal Reserve’s [...]
A systemic crisis, especially a global one, is not a sudden process. It is on the contrary a progressive phenomenon that can be anticipated through the analysis of certain indicators [...]
Riga, November 28-29, 2006 – The upcoming NATO summit, which chose to take place on former soviet soil in order to symbolize the success of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, [...]
2006, a decisive year for the Joint Strike Fighter, or the aeronautic equivalent of the invasion of Iraq. The US attempt to impose the F35, Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) – [...]
Last February, LEAP/E2020 anticipated that a global systemic crisis was to be triggered at the end of March. Today, three months later, LEAP/E2020 can anticipate that the initial phase of [...]