For the fourth consecutive month, accompanied by all the usual precautions, our team continues to believe that the crisis’ peak is now behind us. It’s clear that two photos taken five minutes before and five minutes after this peak can be identical. On the other hand the film isn’t comparable; it’s that the perspective is radically different. The mountain walker knows, after crossing the pass that the descent seems easier than the climb: clear direction, gravity on one’s side, shelter in sight… But be careful all the same, before reaching the tarmac road obstacles and risks of a fall are still very present, perhaps even aggravated by the comfortable feeling associated with the fatigue of the climb. This impression of the end of the walk is exactly what our team feels after four months now. Some of our readers are surprised to see us put on rose tinted spectacles; are the spectacles rose tinted or is it really this crisis’ setting sun shining through?
Since 2006, the GEAB undertook to analyze and anticipate the different stages of what our team’s coordinator, Franck Biancheri, decided to call the “global systemic crisis” which can be summed up as a gigantic transition between two global systems: the Western centered unipolar world on the one hand, and the multi-polar world on the other, which we have now entered and which no one can no longer deny – even if some offer the hypothesis of a neo-unipolarity, this time China-centric, in the making.
This gigantic global change was allowed, and is accompanied by, another major systemic transformation, linked to the Internet “revolution”, which has caused a re-organization, or rather a deep and total “organicization”, of the whole social structure, methods of organization and business at global level.
As the GEAB has said for a long time, the global system which is collapsing in front of our noses was 500 years old. It was born out of the Renaissance’s major discoveries which gave Europe a 500 year advantage, then to the Russian and American reincarnation, to the detriment of the existing major civilizations such as China and Iran. This Western-centric world no longer exists today and it’s the West itself that triggered this transition: by inventing colonization then decolonization, then postcolonial guilt, then cooperation, then the regional integration process, then globalization, then the Internet,… somehow the West has created/wished for this multi-polarization which, therefore, has no reason to be so scary for some. It’s time to face the consequences of our policies and our speeches and agreed to share the planet.
And that is what is happening. With Obama currently providing the best proof that, after appearing instrumental in escalating Euro-Russian tensions last year, he has turned into a real peacemaker in the Middle East this year with this 180° strategic shift as regards Iran. Not to mention the recent attempts to revive the constructive dialogue between Kerry and Lavrov, attempts which despite not resulting in any progress at this stage of course, have the merit of existing.
The global systemic crisis’ mountain pass is behind us, even if the slips are still ahead of us, slips which can be painful but which themselves can only bring us closer ... Read