Category: middle east
Wars have undoubtedly generated plagues. But do plagues generate wars? From a systemic point of view, the pandemic should be enough to seal the fate of the old system, inaugurate the next one and save us from going down the “war” route… that is if, indeed, this route has really been avoided. Let us remember […]
It would be hard not to mention Covid-19 in this coming bulletin. But it’s also hard to think straight and bring the characteristic GEAB perspective into the current media hysteria. We will nevertheless lend ourselves to this challenge, conscious that the GEAB perspective can still offer some pertinent insights into the understanding of this crisis, […]
We estimate that there is a very high (70%) probability of the imminent launch of a rapid and brutal birthing process of Greater Israel. Figure 1: Comparison between the presentation of the Israeli districts in the Wikipedia in French (left) and the Wikipedia in Hebrew (right) in their version of August 2015. The Wikipedia in […]
The Middle Eastern mega-city project called NEOM[1] that we have told you about in a previous issue is a real reason to hope. As mentioned last time, the Saudis would not proceed with this project if they truly had in mind an open conflict with Iran. This project is first and foremost a symbol of […]
We can not help going back to the Middle East this month, simply because what is happening now looks so much like we had been anticipating for several years and announced at the beginning of 2017 in our list of “up and down trends”: Saudi Arabia’s emergence as a new strong player in the region, […]
The end of the year will be rich in surprises and escalation risks, as we have been saying for the last two months. Currently, all eyes are on the Middle East, the world’s powder keg, and on the tensions emerging around Lebanon, involving nothing less than protagonists like the United States, Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia […]
We have repeatedly analyzed that only the regional powers would be able to restore calm in the Middle East and resolve the Daesh issue, the common enemy on which (almost) everyone has agreed. However, we have stated that the US or Russian interventions would only have the effect of exacerbating tensions. Repeatedly missed opportunities Suffice […]
The West couldn’t help but acknowledge the Morsi’s overthrow by the military in Egypt on 3 July last. Fortunately, everyone quickly realised that one can hardly claim democracy and greet a military coup d’état. Certainly, the appearance of a large popular movement was able, for a few days, to delude international opinion on the nature […]
Scenario 1: Towards the end of the State of Israel / Scenario 2: Towards a durable Israeli state Continuing its in-depth analysis of the consequences of the end of the world order which had been the legacy of WWII, LEAP/E2020 started several months ago a strategic reflexion on the future of Israel. In this number […]
This summer of 2019, in which the Middle East continues to be in the spotlight, we have found and gathered 7 scenarios which are emblematic of our vision of the region’s future. They will be presented here exactly as originally published. The originality of our team’s anticipations of the Middle East region’s future is thus […]
We would like to remind you that one of the main guiding principles for analysing North American foreign policy and current events in and around the Middle East is the annexation by Israel of all or part of the Occupied Territories.[1] Preparations are underway. The sending of US troops close to Iran is intended to […]
We live in an exciting time when elation over long-awaited change is mixed with fear of the risks involved. Our anticipation concerning the reorganisation of the Middle East through the annexation by Israel of at least part of the occupied territories is in the process of validation: Netanyahu has now clearly announced it and everything […]
NATO is a 70-year-old baby boomer… just like the Organisation of American States (69), Mao Tse Tong’s Communist Republic of China, the Federal Republic of Germany, the Democratic Republic of Germany, the Treaty of Rome (72 years), the State of Israel (71 years), the Geneva Convention, George Orwell’s 1984 novel[1], Antonio Guterres, Bernard Arnault, Donald […]
We estimate that there is a very high (70%) probability of the imminent launch of a rapid and brutal birthing process of Greater Israel. Figure 1: Comparison between the presentation of the Israeli districts in the Wikipedia in French (left) and the Wikipedia in Hebrew (right) in their version of August 2015. The Wikipedia in […]
In this short column, we are discussing, in the form of brief alerts, several risks that our bulletin cannot develop further, but concerning which we want, nevertheless, to warn our readers. Syria once again The American camp seemed to be failing for some time, leaving the way open to the Russian camp to calm the […]
Saudi Arabia has recently sent a significant signal concerning the establishment of a ‘New Middle East’, perfectly in line with all our anticipations for this world region. Let’s take a look at this move. At the beginning of March, Mohammed Ben Salman (aka MBS) visited Egypt as part of his first official visit abroad since […]
The Middle Eastern mega-city project called NEOM[1] that we have told you about in a previous issue is a real reason to hope. As mentioned last time, the Saudis would not proceed with this project if they truly had in mind an open conflict with Iran. This project is first and foremost a symbol of […]
The Middle East looks as if it could flare up at any moment. Iran and Israel are now face-to-face for the first time[1]. The Turkish regime is hardening and now troubling everyone. Syria keeps offering a peace that Westerners refuse to ratify as long as their share of the victory (and of the cake) is […]