Home 2025 – Asia at the centre of rare earth conflicts

GEAB 190

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Dec 2024

2025 – Asia at the centre of rare earth conflicts

Many people view digital data as the oil of the 21st century, but the natural resources required to produce it are rare earth elements. Beyond digital technology, rare earths are equally crucial for key sectors such as defense and the ecological transition. Naturally, they will be at the center of geopolitical rivalries between the major powers. Asia, and more specifically China, with the world’s largest reserves, will emerge as the epicenter of these future tensions.

China will strengthen its monopoly, potentially by forming a “rare earth elements cartel” with the BRICS countries, and will use these resources as strategic leverage, particularly in the context of Taiwan. The United States and Europe, still vulnerable because of their heavy dependence, will become increasingly bellicose. Russia, for its part, will try to reduce its dependence on China by exploiting its relations with resource-rich countries, but will nevertheless remain very close to Beijing. These rivalries will fuel local conflicts in Central Asia in regions rich in rare earth elements.

The monopoly of the Middle Kingdom

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