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2024: An Arab protectorate for the Palestinian territories

We find ourselves precisely where we depicted the painful and violent transition to the world after, with what we referred to as the return of the logic of force in our GEAB178 of 15 October 2023. This situation aligns with the scenario we dared to describe in GEAB 133 of 15/03/2019: “Second quarter 2019: Epilogue […]

Mega-Trends for 2024: Real Risks, False Fears

“Be greedy when others are fearful”[1] The great feature of 2024 is its jam-packed electoral calendar. This year, almost three billion people will be voting in 76 countries, including major ones like India, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, Russia, South Africa, Algeria, Rwanda and, of course, the United States. All these countries find themselves in a […]

Azerbaijan-Armenia: Achieving long-term peace… Troublemakers, refrain!

We are witnessing an era of historical cynicism that compels us to perceive a succession of micro-conflicts, accompanied by their toll of casualties and population displacements, as endeavors aimed at constructing enduring peace. In making this statement, we are, of course, referring to the conflict between Israel and Hamas (considered “micro” due to its territorial […]

Editorial – World order plate tectonics

Similar to the gradual movement of continents, the reshaping of the global order is a protracted and gradual phenomenon when examined on a monthly scale. While marked by intense clashes that give rise to mountain ranges and definitive separations resulting in straits, seas, or oceans, geopolitical plate tectonics unfolds over an extended period. Between the […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Nov)

Eurozone: State bankruptcies on the horizon? Stagflation, recession, rising credit costs, unemployment… the negative signals are multiplying for the eurozone economies. As the end of the year approaches, these indicators are going to hit the headlines and it is going to become increasingly complicated for governments to put on a brave face. The direct consequence […]

2030 Middle East: New Epicentre of World Trade (INSTC, IMEC, New Silk Roads…)

The reshaping of the world is reflected in the evolution of trade routes. Global merchandise trade is expected to reach $32.6 billion in 2030, with Asia, Africa and the Middle East accounting for 44% of exports, with mainland China, India and South Korea leading the way in terms of volume[1]. The Eurasian continent is back […]

Ukraine 2025: End of the Unilateral European Union

In our October issue, the GEAB team anticipated Ukraine’s medium-term development: As a result, Ukraine’s integration into the EU seems rather hypothetical, as it would have to be supported by all Member States…. The Ukrainian people are beginning to realise this. In the medium term, the country will experience the paradoxes that the EU can […]

Israel-Hamas: The Other Scenario… “Thinking the unthinkable”

The conflict will be resolved in the short term and will allow the region to integrate and open up to all its potential. This is what we presented last month, in line with our work on the future of the Middle East over the last seventeen years. This scenario stays solid, we think. However, it […]

Editorial – 2025-2030: Fast-track Creative Destruction

Anticipation means always looking a little further ahead and striving to think the unthinkable. So, when all the signs point to destruction, to collapse, we need to remain clear-headed so as not to overlook the elements of renewal, the signs of creation. Joseph Schumpeter and his theory of creative destruction is useful in this regard. […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Oct)

One year on from the global recession: Navigating the new economy In September, JP Morgan’s monthly Global Manufacturing PMI recorded the twelfth consecutive global recession[1]. Just as we anticipated with inflation, recession is a lasting trend. We are entering a new economy in which a return to high interest rates (the norm), shortages and difficulties […]

Green Ecosystems: Approaching the point of no-return in the Global Forest Crisis

Forests are far more than just verdant scenery. They are essential ecosystems, hubs of biodiversity, with a pivotal role in upholding ecological equilibrium and sustaining human existence. Among their myriad advantages, three significant roles are prominent: the stabilisation of soil, the preservation of drinking water and, maybe the most important one, forests are the lungs […]

The future of the French language: A collective responsibility which goes beyond the borders of the Francophonie

Despite the “anti-French sentiment” currently sweeping Africa and suggesting that France is losing its appeal[1], we anticipate a renewed dynamism of the French language worldwide. The best proof will be when it regains its colours outside the institutions and funds responsible for its “defence”. One month before the inauguration of the Cité de la Langue […]

Geopolitics: The logic of force returns

Logically, the international governance invented by the West after two world wars to create the conditions for peace was based on the defence of weak players (Palestinians, Armenians, Saharawis, etc.) against strong players (Israel, Azerbaijan, Morocco, etc.). It is morally undeniable that a peace system is designed to curb the expansionist ambitions of those who […]

Editorial: When weapons are all that’s left to communicate

The transition from the world ‘before’ to the world ‘after’ that we have so often analysed and commented on in our publications continues. Today, this transition is taking on a violent aspect. The Russian-Ukrainian war marks a return to armed conflict on the European continent. The absence of a speedy resolution underscores the challenges in […]

Five years of China’s Reinvention: The Emergence of a new Geopolitical Model

To be fair, political anticipation requires us to look back at past forecasts. This is what the LEAP team does every August by delving into the GEAB archives. This year, we went back to 2017 to rediscover our anticipations on China’s global power. While China’s position on the world stage is complex in relation to […]

Trends in a changing world: US bank stress tests, the Panama Canal, Social networks…

Bank failures not anticipated by bank stress tests Recent bank failures in the US clearly raise questions about the reliability of the FED’s bank stress tests.[1] Regulated since the subprime crisis of 2008, which shook the financial and banking sector in the United States and Europe, and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, one of the […]

Degrowth: The major challenges of the global demographic winter

Our work in anticipation and the reflection on time that it encourages, have made us particularly sensitive to the fact that we do not all live in the same temporalities. One person’s future is another’s present or past, both in terms of our objective reality (e.g. technological) and our understanding of that reality (accurate but […]

Editorial – Reopening your mind with the GEAB

The world is as big as we want it to be. Our team is dedicated to exploring the world’s geopolitical balances of power and opening a window on how they might evolve. While the future is the cornerstone of our editorial line, we also place the plurality of information at the heart of our work. […]