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Five years of China’s Reinvention: The Emergence of a new Geopolitical Model

To be fair, political anticipation requires us to look back at past forecasts. This is what the LEAP team does every August by delving into the GEAB archives. This year, we went back to 2017 to rediscover our anticipations on China’s global power. While China’s position on the world stage is complex in relation to […]

Trends in a changing world: US bank stress tests, the Panama Canal, Social networks…

Bank failures not anticipated by bank stress tests Recent bank failures in the US clearly raise questions about the reliability of the FED’s bank stress tests.[1] Regulated since the subprime crisis of 2008, which shook the financial and banking sector in the United States and Europe, and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, one of the […]

Degrowth: The major challenges of the global demographic winter

Our work in anticipation and the reflection on time that it encourages, have made us particularly sensitive to the fact that we do not all live in the same temporalities. One person’s future is another’s present or past, both in terms of our objective reality (e.g. technological) and our understanding of that reality (accurate but […]

Editorial – Reopening your mind with the GEAB

The world is as big as we want it to be. Our team is dedicated to exploring the world’s geopolitical balances of power and opening a window on how they might evolve. While the future is the cornerstone of our editorial line, we also place the plurality of information at the heart of our work. […]

Trends in a changing world

Mexico, 2025/2026, a + in the BRICS+ world President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, AMLO, has one year left to make his country a permanent member of the group of sovereign and equal states[1] and to consolidate all the changes he has brought about in the last five years. In the “Reader’s eye on the future” […]

2023 – 2025: US Banking Crisis, Bank Run, European Digital Wallets, Digital Currencies and Cryptos: The Necessary Break for the Reinvention of the Western Economic System

Never let a crisis go to waste. The US regional banking crisis continues to gather pace. As out of control as the situation seems, our team believes that the American and European political and financial authorities see it as a necessary evil to reinvent their economic system. This reinvention is a matter of survival for […]

2023-2025: The throes of the disappearance of the dollar as an international currency

For almost 20 years we have been anticipating a revolution in the international monetary system and in particular the emancipation of the global economy from the trade vehicle of the 20th century, the dollar.[1] Apparently, nothing has happened, the reason being that no one had any interest in the dollar disappearing overnight. So, the whole […]

Calendar of future events – a special focus on elections 2023/2024

We are not going to draw up a calendar of all the elections, but of those which seem to us to be the most significant. In 2023, for example, ten African states will hold national elections: Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon, Liberia, Libya (if they are not postponed again), Madagascar, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, […]

2023-2025: The great Western innovation bug

The exponential nature of the pace of innovation of all kinds is increasingly terrifying the Western human collective. Between frightened looks at the future, growing difficulties in adapting to change, and the staggering cost of transformations and their maintenance (starting with cybersecurity), the West will gradually take the word “innovation” with horror. In recent decades, […]

May-June 2024, Modi’s re-election? A not so easy path for India…

We continue our focus on India with this brief on the 2024 elections. The 543 Members of Parliament representing the 28 states + the 8 Indian territories will be elected. In 2024 Narendra Modi, then 74 years old, will have been at the head of the Indian government for 10 years and will be running […]

Will India be the tomb of the Western economy?

We anticipate that Narendra Modi’s Make in India strategy, fueled by the Anglo-Saxon anti-China strategy, will attract a good number of companies that will remain there – in all senses of the word. In line with our previous article on India, it is appropriate to warn our readers against the “Indian temptation” that is likely […]

Ukraine in Europe 2023: The Unsustainability of the European Pyramid

Ukrainian refugees now live in Europe under a special status called temporary protection, modelled after a similar status created by the US at the end of the Cold War. While this status offers them privileged benefits, it also exacerbates the difficulties Europe faces, which we illustrate with a deep dive into the German situation. This […]

Reader’s view on the future: “Humans will lose some of what they’ve had in order to move on to something else”

We are inaugurating with Marie Poisson this new section “Reader’s view on the Future“. Marie’s life is an atypical journey, as she lives on her boat in Thailand. She used to be an antique dealer in Paris and, at the same time, she had set up a computer maintenance company. She changed her life to […]

2024-Ramaphosa is re-elected as coalition President: En route to the African Continental Free Trade Area

Article written by Michael Kahn, an independent adviser on innovation anticipation, policy, monitoring and evaluation. Professor Kahn is honorary Research Fellow at Stellenbosch University and Professor of Practice in the University of Johannesburg, He works with governments, the multilateral organisations, NGOs and higher education. His most recent publications are the UNESCO GO-SPIN Report for Mozambique, a […]

2024 – Summit of the Future: Last chance for the United Nations, the last Western bastion of an ex-bipolar world

It was agreed in September 2020 that the UN will mark its 75th anniversary with a Summit of the Future, an event to be held at the end of 2024. The stakes are historic: to provide a supranational political framework for the multipolar world, which is currently settling in a chaotic manner due to the […]

A Panorama of weak signals

US/Europe/World – Comparative Stabilities: America’s Advantage In line with our article on the geopolitics of foreign direct investments (FDI), we must say that by using all its tools of power, the United States is currently succeeding in reversing the process of tilting the transatlantic relationship in favour of the EU, something we spotted in 2019 […]

Assessment of our anticipations for 2022: 76.5% success rate

“Pretty good’ we would say. Here we are, after the post-Covid world, in a world that is not yet quite “post-Ukraine” but which marks a new break in the systemic organisation of the world order. An order that is divided into two camps: Western, essentially Europe (the EU enlarged to the wishes of the imperialist […]

Panorama: It’s time for the emerging markets

As expected, with the mid-terms soon behind us, the Fed is starting to prepare for a slowdown in monetary tightening in December.[1] Goldman Sachs is trying to make it look like inflation will fall in 2023[2] – presumably to encourage the Fed to slow down. Again, the tightening of rates only has a marginal effect […]