GEAB 190
Our team is proud to present its self-evaluaiton of the 2024 trends published in January. This year we have recorded a 74.19% success rate. Several events were accurately anticipated from the start of the year: the defection of at least one of the two US presidential candidates, the dissolution of the government in France and the collapse of the coalition in Germany, among others. The most structuring trend was the wait-and-see attitude typical of the great election year of 2024, which lasted until the American election, then gave way to a reawakening of the multipolar world (see our editorial this month).
Below, you can read short extracts from January’s trends, accompanied by comments and references confirming or refuting our anticipations, and the external references on which each of the notes is based.
1 – American election fog disrupts global visibility 1
Even though he may be prevented from running by the courts in various American states, he is the favourite in the polls, even though the United States has always been known to hate losers. As much adored as hated, if we consider all the plausible scenarios, we can’t even rule out a potential assassination[1] ! […] On the other hand, few people would dare to bet 100% that Biden will maintain his candidacy[2] […] Not only is it impossible to predict the winner, but it is even difficult to predict with any certainty the candidates for the election.
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