GEAB 180

Last January, in our issue GEAB 171, by way of presenting a panorama of trends and anticipations point by point as we used to do, we chose to paint a general and global picture of the geopolitical, economic and financial mega-trends of the year 2023. From this picture, we have selected the following thirty or so points on which this assessment is based.

European Union: The Diminishing Presence in the Emerging Multipolar World – Europe, the Ailing Entity on the Global Stage (society, politics, economy, financial appeal, etc.)

1. Unravelling the European institutions (including the Eurozone): +0.5

You’d think they’d have grown stronger, so much so that Europe has taken over our news, focused on a central point of the institutional pyramid, the omnipresent presidency of the European Commission: Ukraine, energy, the environment, scarce resources, defence, Orban, Poland, geopolitics (Israel, China…), migrants… Ursula von der Leyen wanted to be the EU’s top figure, overshadowing the European Commissioners who have gradually receded into the background. Their roles have become less conspicuous, and their interchangeability goes unquestioned, even when their alignment with democratic principles is contested (as seen with France protesting against the appointment of an American new tech lobbyist to head the Competition Directorate[1]). The European Parliament, lacking a robust democratic political strategy, is set to witness the return of a third of nationalist/sovereignist MEPs in June 2024, without a significant role in defending the political standing of the European Commission. The European Central Bank (ECB) led by Christine Lagarde maintained a bewildering silence throughout the year. The Eurozone, destined for enlargement on a principle that questions the EU’s relevance, experienced the indefinite postponement of the digital Euro. The European Council’s shortcomings served to reinforce the Commission’s decision-making authority, exemplified by the glyphosate affair, where “in the absence of agreement between EU member countries,” the Commission unilaterally extended the marketing authorisation for 10 years[2]. The year 2023 witnessed an eventful period of European financial plans and diplomatic voyages by the President, who accompanied heads of state on trips to various world capitals, including Washington, Beijing, Brasilia, New Delhi, Tel Aviv, and more.