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GEAB 171

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Jan 2023
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To begin this year, our team would like to warmly thank all of our readers who responded to the questionnaire we sent you in our previous issue. Many of you have expressed interest and enthusiasm in the idea of building a space for research, reflection and anticipation, in which we can share our knowledge and our questions about the future, and of course our method of political anticipation. We will soon close the questionnaire to start processing the responses and will come back to those who have expressed the wish to do so in the coming weeks.

While it can sometimes be difficult to wish each other a Happy New Year in these times, our trends for 2023 show that the world is not going so badly, except for the European political project… A new macro-economic and geopolitical paradigm continues to take shape and we believe that the European Union will find itself fading, mainly behind its historical guardian the United States. The latter is preserving its global power alongside a China at the crossroads and a flourishing India which is preparing to put its stamp on 2023… and while Latin America is at great risk of succumbing once again to American influence, without this preventing it from relaunching the dynamics of cooperation within its continent.

These new energies are released on the international scene in a chaotic way, borrowed from a confrontational spirit of “you are either with me or against me”, for lack of a supra-national institutional framework. To this, the UN is preparing what looks like its last card, a summit for the future to be held in 2024, to which we dedicate an article in this issue.

In a disorganised multipolar world, the African continent is struggling to actually emerge, despite having the most promising development dynamics. For this reason, we have taken a look at the beginnings of a future that could have a significant impact on the international scene, focusing on South Africa.

We hope that reading these pages will give your navigation system a clearer perspective on the world of 2023, and we wish you a Not-so-bad New Year!

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