Home Azerbaijan-Armenia: Achieving long-term peace… Troublemakers, refrain!

GEAB 180

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Dec 2023

Azerbaijan-Armenia: Achieving long-term peace… Troublemakers, refrain!

We are witnessing an era of historical cynicism that compels us to perceive a succession of micro-conflicts, accompanied by their toll of casualties and population displacements, as endeavors aimed at constructing enduring peace.

In making this statement, we are, of course, referring to the conflict between Israel and Hamas (considered “micro” due to its territorial confinement to Gaza) and to the recent disarmament and displacement of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh (resulting in 100,000 displaced individuals[1]). While the future in the Middle East remains uncertain, the path to peace in the South Caucasus appears increasingly like a well-defined route – as predicted in our June 2022 article[2]. Armenia and Azerbaijan have recently exchanged prisoners as a gesture signalling the easing of tensions[3]. Moreover, Armenia has demonstrated substantial support for Azerbaijan’s bid to host COP29 by withdrawing its own bid[4].

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