GEAB 203
EDITORIAL
The phase of Permanent Systemic War we identified in January as the next stage of the Global Systemic Crisis[1], has already been confirmed. Contrary to the intentions of the current American administration, the United States and Israel have joined forces to attack Iran, prompting Tehran to retaliate by targeting the empire’s weak points: the Gulf petro-monarchies, less protected than Israel and far closer than America; the hydrocarbon supply lines feeding the entire Western “friend-shoring” network, starting with Europe, already weakened by the Russia-Ukraine war; and the Japanese debt, a cornerstone of the Western financial architecture.
For the record, in 2008, the GEAB reported that the dollar crisis increased the risk of a US attack on Iran by 70%[2]. The context of the dollar crisis, reignited in 2025, is compounded in particular by the crisis of the Israeli-American-Saudi strategy for the new Middle East, conceived in 2017[3] (and which led to the Abraham Accords in 2020) and failed on 7 October 2023[4] just over six months after the signing of an Iranian-Saudi agreement backed by China[5] which, in our view, caused panic amongst the Israeli and American establishments, leading to this desperate attempt to topple the Mullahs’ regime by force.
Admittedly, the Middle East is once again polarised between Shia and Sunni… or at least between Sunni and Shia governments. The United Arab Emirates, of course, but also Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and even Qatar and Oman… all the Gulf states are facing the wrath of the Iranian state. But one must ask what the Muslim populations of these countries think about this operation: in Bahrain, which is predominantly Shia, of course, but in all the other GCC states, finding themselves allied with Israel and at war with Muslims, who are, moreover, the last defenders of the Palestinian people… Obviously, the Gulf states are not democracies. Even though they pay little attention to the opinions of their people, they cannot go against them for very long.
In the meantime, the dollar has regained some ground due to the surge in oil prices[6], but this upturn will no doubt be short-lived (oil prices will soon fall again and central banks are selling their dollars to prop up their currencies).
As for debt, yields on Japanese government bonds are rising, but US T-bonds must follow suit to remain competitive. All this at the same time as US and Japanese public spending is skyrocketing due to the war in Iran (11 billion in a week) and Takaichi’s fiscal policy…
This is Permanent Systemic War, and the world must learn to live in chaos, disregard all fiscal rationality, operate amidst the constant yo-yoing of currency and commodity prices and find ways to route strategic materials through alternative channels… the world in stress-test mode, so to speak.
Some will say that this is what it means to be agile, resilient, fuzzy – in a word, modern. Others will continue to propose solutions to lead humanity towards a new era of stability. Among the latter, Europe has a role to play. Whereas the war in Ukraine has strengthened Ms Ursula von der Leyen’s centralised NATO-aligned EU, the war in Iran is exposing all the divisions of the European countries, but above all within the European institutions themselves. Von der Leyen has spoken out resolutely in favour of a regime change in Iran, shocking not only Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and Antonio Costa, President of the European Council[7], but also a number of heads of state and government for such a clear-cut position expressed on behalf of them all.
We see this as a rare opportunity to rebalance von der Leyen’s influence and allow a few European countries to take back the reins of the continent’s destiny. Sánchez’s bold move[8], playing the role that Chirac and Schröder had played in 2003 during the 2nd US-Iraq war, sends a clear signal in this respect[9]. The Spanish Prime Minister is thus reminding the world that he leads a country which is not only now economically credible but, above all, influential on the international stage due to its vast linguistic sphere with which it maintains good relations (unlike France with the Francophonie) and which the United States, moreover, regards as its own backyard (and therefore a potential source of trouble)…
France, although less vocal due to Macron’s uncompromising Europeanism, does not support the attack on Iran[10]. Italy and Germany are also more or less critical of the Israeli-American operation[11]. Interestingly, two other Western but non-EU countries support the notion of international law rather than the imperative for regime change in Iran: the United Kingdom (diplomatic support for allies, a defensive stance, refusal of direct offensive strikes) and Turkey too, of course… all these countries are influential on the international stage by virtue of their language or history. They are in a legitimate position to suggest a plan for reforming global governance, reaffirming the principle of international law and also inviting the other major powers of the multipolar world to their table.
The Pax Americana has now officially failed: with Europe at war with Russia, the Middle East at war with Iran, soon Japan at war with China, … and the United States bogged down in a new Afghanistan in Iran, the compromises on sovereignty that all the allies made with the hegemon in exchange for their security and the stability of their business are now dead letters.
There is, however, Vance… who, for his own reasons, does not support an attack on Iran either… and who, along with his friend Thiel, will (or would) have even further views on the future of the world…
Marie-Hélène Caillol,
Managing Editor, Co-Founder of the GEAB
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[3] Source: Riyadh Summit, Wikipedia
[4] Source: Gaza War, Wikipedia
[5] Source: Al Jazeera, 11/03/2023
[6] Source: Seeking Alpha, 11/03/2026
[7] Sources: Politico, 9/03/2026 and Euractiv, 10/03/2026
[9] Source: CNN, 22 January 2003
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