Home How Well Did We Anticipate 2020? 67% Success Rate

GEAB 150

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Dec 2020

How Well Did We Anticipate 2020? 67% Success Rate

As 2020 is not a year like any other, we are looking forward to a different kind of year-end self-evaluation. As we did not include the impact of a pandemic in our January forecasts, despite the virus already being on radars at that time, we were concerned for the outcome of our annual assessing of the key trends (as published in January 2020 and which we invite you to reread). The decision was therefore taken collectively to entrust the work to our junior team to ensure a fresh and impartial look at the year.

The score now stands at 21.5 out of 32, or a 67.2% success rate. Not too bad for the least predictable year of the century! How can we explain such a score when we missed the central event of the year? It’s because the Covid crisis has been incredible at accelerating trends. Though our usual January trends don’t all come to fruition during the year (we have often noticed that our predicted roll-out time for trends is often too short), the pandemic has decanted dozens of changes that we have been patiently following into just one year.

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Contents

One hundred and fifty issues of the GEAB is also 15 years and some 4,000 pages spent tracking the future, imagining the subterfuges by which it will impose itself, anticipating [...]

Last month, thanks to our junior team, we explored the mysteries of the cyber world. This first visit was very fruitful and is already taking us to a new set [...]

Sanctions have been decided! Well, almost... Indeed, the Heads of State and Government of the 27 EU Member States decided, at the European Council meeting that has just taken place [...]

The Covid-19 crisis has not brought about anything new. It only focusses the trends that were already at work. In doing so, it widens the gaps. Once this has been [...]

-> Monetary system: The reset is approaching fast -> Bitcoin: Indecision -> US Dollar: It’s all gone wrong -> Financial values: Making the right choices -> Ryanair/Airbnb and alike. Watch [...]

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