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Faces of the future – Manfred Weber: Bringing Parliament and the Commission into line

The new face of tomorrow’s Europe, as described earlier in this issue, matches the faces of tomorrow’s Europeans. Among the latter is one we wish to present to you: Manfred Weber, the very petulant 46-year-old German MEP of the “small” Bavarian Christian party CSU, who could very well be Juncker’s successor at the head of […]

The new face of post-election Europe

There’s no need to wait for the results of the election to anticipate some of the major features of the new Europe that will be established after June 2019. Certainly, on the surface, there will be no revolution: The sovereignist right-wing parties (ENF[1]+Brexit[2]+AEPN[3]+CRE) won’t accumulate more than 20 or 25% maximum of parliamentary seats (around […]

People of the future

Here we present the latest addition to our Bricks of the future section: The Who’s Who? Or People of the future. Just as organisations have a vocation to stabilise at the risk of obstructing the future, human beings have a vocation to activate at the risk of destroying the future. It is therefore time for […]

A changing paradigm: Glimpses of what is coming after the global “nationalist” wave (part two)

Future developments: What will be the new normal? President Trump emerged as a champion of those who perceived that they were left behind in the inequality race and who felt others were ‘flooding’ into ‘their’ country to take their jobs, as traditional politicians filled their own pockets, whilst clinging to economic theories of growth and […]

Calendar of future events (May 2018)

The future is filled with the factual data on which we base the anticipations that inform our decisions. That’s why, on a quarterly basis, our team shares with the GEAB readers the ‘raw’ data of this work in the form of an annotated calendar of upcoming events for the next three or four months. It […]

Member States ready to dismantle the EU

For several years, in the fight between the national and the European levels of governance, it was asserted that the European level was a bulwark against nationalist ‘populisms’, a bastion of values like peace, openness, tolerance and human progress against the bestiality and war inherent in the national model. However, the reality has started to […]

Germany, Austria, Catalonia … some features of Europe’s face in the aftermath of the 2019 EU Elections 

Here after, we will try to sketch out the landscape of a series of elections awaiting us until the end of 2017 (in chronological order). Each of these elections reflects the challenges facing Europe by 2019; challenges which come not just from national or regional voters. The success to reconcile voters’ expectations, government bets and […]

Calendar of Future Events: May / September 2017

May 19 – Iran: presidential election A serious opponent is now threatening the chances of re-election of the reformist Hassan Rohani. This man is the ultra-conservative Ebrahim Raissi, reinforced by the great geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran: war against Saudi Arabia in Yemen, involvement in the Syrian conflict, Israeli threats of aggression, risk of questioning the […]

Global Systemic Crisis 2017-2021 – A phase of chaotic recomposition of the World: national re-landing, crash or rebound?

This expression “chaotic recomposition” seems best to summarise the phase where we currently are with regards to the development of the crisis, a step indicated here as extending over four years and which will include distinct progression phases. It is quite clear that efforts to reorganise the world on a transnational logic have all failed […]

An evaluation of our anticipations for 2016 (drawn from GEAB n° 101 of January 2016): 75% success

Each year in December, we evaluate our trend anticipations made in January. This month, we come across a final score of 25.5 out of 34, meaning a 75% success rate; two points more than last year. The year 2014 and the great turmoil caused by the Euro-Russian shock that drove us below the 70% success […]

Last quarter 2016: Vladimir Putin quits the Russian presidency

We are risking a bold anticipation here, but at least does it provide an interesting angle on the EU’s most important issue since 2014: the dramatically decaying relationship with its closest and most powerful neighbour, Russia. Moreover, as mentioned in our Manual of Political Anticipation, the anticipatory exercise consists of “thinking the unthinkable”… and bringing out […]