Category: politics
If we observe Peter Thiel today, his networks, his ideology and his levers of influence, we get a glimpse of a certain American Republican party planning to run in the 2024 elections.[1] The wealthy Silicon Valley investor and early Trump supporter has recently put aside some of his business roles, notably inside Meta, to focus […]
There’s nothing very original to say about the French election. Nevertheless… For over a year, our references of the upcoming presidential election have allowed us to see the arrival of this new “identitarian” political movement, embodied today by Zemmour, who is aptly riding the wave born of the societal storms of the last 15 years… […]
A cluster of major trends 2022 is shaping up to be a complicated year… After the great pause of 2020, 2021 tried to make it look like things would return to normal. Instead, as we anticipated at the beginning of last year, every hint of recovery has led to new fractures in the old system: […]
In a few days, after 16 long years of rule, the ‘royal’ figure of Angela Merkel will no longer dominate Germany. The Chancellor will have conducted her country through a complicated historical period while taking on a role that shouldn’t have been hers: the leader of an EU in the midst of a storm. Calm, […]
Trump was the seal of the populists’ era born in the wake of the gigantic crises of the last decade: Putin, Erdogan, Trump, Bolsonaro, Johnson… More fear than harm in the end. Yet, a new era is beginning, the nature of which Israel has just indicated, as anticipated by us: the techno-radicals are here. Enough […]
One piece of business news with political significance: French and Italian media giants Vivendi (Bolloré) and Mediaset (Berlusconi) are throwing in the towel on their differences, each going their own way.[1] The end of the feud allows the Italian group to move forward with its great ambition: the Media for Europe project[2], merging its Italian […]
One of the main points of instability in the reformed system emerging today is how out of touch leaders are. This year, we’ve scraped the barrel and it’s undermining all the progress made through reform, modernising and reinforcing stability in the system. The fact that the benefits of these reforms will not immediately be visible […]
As 2020 is not a year like any other, we are looking forward to a different kind of year-end self-evaluation. As we did not include the impact of a pandemic in our January forecasts, despite the virus already being on radars at that time, we were concerned for the outcome of our annual assessing of […]
Our last article on the American election dates from four months ago (‘US Election 2020 – A New America takes over’ – GEAB, 15 May 2020).[1] Among the many arguments suggesting a significant risk of process derailment, we identified concerns about the management of the election; we believed that the change in voting access was […]
Under the impetuous blows of the global systemic crisis, the automatic pilot system (technocracy), that determined our direction and cruising speed until 2008, is gradually coming to an end. The all-economic – or, rather, the all-techno finance – has begun to give way to politicians that are struggling to take charge in order to bring […]
The new face of tomorrow’s Europe matches the faces of tomorrow’s Europeans. Among the latter is one we wish to present to you: Manfred Weber, the very petulant 46-year-old German MEP of the “small” Bavarian Christian party CSU, who could very well be Juncker’s successor at the head of the European Commission soon. Why are […]
There’s no need to wait for the results of the election to anticipate some of the major features of the new Europe that will be established after June 2019. Certainly, on the surface, there will be no revolution: The sovereignist right-wing parties (ENF[1]+Brexit[2]+AEPN[3]+CRE) won’t accumulate more than 20 or 25% maximum of parliamentary seats (around […]
Here we present the latest addition to our Bricks of the future section: The Who’s Who? Or People of the future. Just as organisations have a vocation to stabilise at the risk of obstructing the future, human beings have a vocation to activate at the risk of destroying the future. It is therefore time for […]
Future developments: What will be the new normal? President Trump emerged as a champion of those who perceived that they were left behind in the inequality race and who felt others were ‘flooding’ into ‘their’ country to take their jobs, as traditional politicians filled their own pockets, whilst clinging to economic theories of growth and […]
The future is filled with the factual data on which we base the anticipations that inform our decisions. That’s why, on a quarterly basis, our team shares with the GEAB readers the ‘raw’ data of this work in the form of an annotated calendar of upcoming events for the next three or four months. It […]
For several years, in the fight between the national and the European levels of governance, it was asserted that the European level was a bulwark against nationalist ‘populisms’, a bastion of values like peace, openness, tolerance and human progress against the bestiality and war inherent in the national model. However, the reality has started to […]
Here after, we will try to sketch out the landscape of a series of elections awaiting us until the end of 2017 (in chronological order). Each of these elections reflects the challenges facing Europe by 2019; challenges which come not just from national or regional voters. The success to reconcile voters’ expectations, government bets and […]
May 19 – Iran: presidential election A serious opponent is now threatening the chances of re-election of the reformist Hassan Rohani. This man is the ultra-conservative Ebrahim Raissi, reinforced by the great geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran: war against Saudi Arabia in Yemen, involvement in the Syrian conflict, Israeli threats of aggression, risk of questioning the […]