GEAB 141

As we do every year, GEAB by LEAP is presenting a landscape of the key trends for the coming year. Besides the intellectual value of this LEAP contribution, which, of course, reflects many of the analyses of our researchers over the last few months, we aim to provide a better understanding of the main issues in the news together with some recommendations. This panorama can thus provide readers of the GEAB with some very practical help in preparing for the coming year. With success rates varying between 69% and 85% (70.5% in 2019[1]) over the past fourteen years, this work of anticipation should be a particularly effective decision-making tool for 2020.

#Europe #Geopolitics / EU: Caught between strengthening and global turbulence

The EU is expected to have a year of extreme contrasts. Its core vision will come up against a very turbulent global reality which will impact on its opinions but will also complicate its task. While the recent soft war between the US and China has, in a way, recreated the conditions conducive to the construction of Europe (remember that, until 1989, Europe was built under the shelter of the American nuclear umbrella on one side and the Berlin Wall on the other), a hardening of this war will tend to transform Europe into a battlefield where it plays the role of the trophy.