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GEAB 141

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Jan 2020

Panorama 2020: 32 key trends

As we do every year, GEAB by LEAP is presenting a landscape of the key trends for the coming year. Besides the intellectual value of this LEAP contribution, which, of course, reflects many of the analyses of our researchers over the last few months, we aim to provide a better understanding of the main issues in the news together with some recommendations. This panorama can thus provide readers of the GEAB with some very practical help in preparing for the coming year. With success rates varying between 69% and 85% (70.5% in 2019[1]) over the past fourteen years, this work of anticipation should be a particularly effective decision-making tool for 2020.

#Europe #Geopolitics / EU: Caught between strengthening and global turbulence

The EU is expected to have a year of extreme contrasts. Its core vision will come up against a very turbulent global reality which will impact on its opinions but will also complicate its task. While the recent soft war between the US and China has, in a way, recreated the conditions conducive to the construction of Europe (remember that, until 1989, Europe was built under the shelter of the American nuclear umbrella on one side and the Berlin Wall on the other), a hardening of this war will tend to transform Europe into a battlefield where it plays the role of the trophy.

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In summary

A non-exhaustive review of global risk by continents/regions Geopolitical tensions will dominate the year 2020. From the most structural to the most cyclical, the reasons are: The multipolar world is [...]

As an introduction to our traditional January “key trends”, here are the main guiding lines that we have identified for this “phoney year ”. This first year of the new [...]

Briefly annotated, here are some important dates to keep in mind as we look ahead to 2020. 31st January: EU – Official exit of the UK The beginning of some [...]

Bitcoin: Digital Gold The fairly sharp rise in the price of Bitcoin at the time of the Iranian-American crisis confirms the intuition we had in June: Bitcoin is acting as [...]

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