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The GEAB team’s Future Events Calendar

Political anticipation does not work using crystal balls. “Future data” represents the raw material for its analyses: elections, summits, and various meetings are elements which allow us to cast light on a future of facts. Since June 2016, the GEAB team has decided to share with its readers the raw data which underpins our anticipations. […]

First semester of 2019 – Anger of nations, Balkans, end of the QE, Special Purpose Vehicle, Brexit, Elections… Europe: Countdowns are on!

The ‘yellow vests’ (FR),[1] the pro- and anti-Brexit protests (UK),[2] the German political crisis (DE),[3] the Catalan independence movement (SP),[4] the budget battle (IT),[5] the labour law reform (HU),[6] the Marrakesh agreement and ministerial reshuffle (BE)[7]… the European element in the increasingly violent crises currently feeding the national news is striking. Disclaimer: We recommend that […]

The EU: Sailing in a raging storm with no navigation equipment

The editorial GEAB team decided to share, exceptionally, with its readers an excerpt of the as yet unpublished document entitled “Community or Empire”; a book written by Franck Biancheri in 1992. This excerpt evokes the importance for the EU’s endowing with a forecasting capacity to adapt its governance to the challenges of its reopening to […]

USA 2017 – Independence is the right path for Puerto Rico

As part of our series of articles on the United States, knowing the elections are almost here, and deep socio-political changes are most probably on the way in this country, we will dedicate some time to study what the crisis in Puerto Rico says about the solidarity of the US union system. We will show […]

EU BORDERS – The end of the myth of eternal enlargement: Turkey-Ukraine, two countries which will not join the EU / The Balkans, last enlargement of the next 20 years / Russia, the key to solve the EU-Turkey problem

The increasing difficulties of the process of Turkey entering the European Union contrasts with the progressive  entry “piece by piece” of the former Yugoslavia (Slovenia is already a member and Croatia  is starting  its integration  process  while proposals  to integrate  the other Balkan countries multiply). This contrast is all the more striking if one compares […]

NATO 2006 – The year of global dilution and of EU/US decoupling

Riga, November 28-29, 2006 – The upcoming NATO summit, which chose to take place on former soviet soil in order to symbolize the success of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, is likely to be remembered  as the Summit where two opposite trends thrust the Alliance into the ongoing global systemic crisis, and as the symbol […]

EU: A constitutional deadlock and the crisis of the analytical system of/on the EU

In this beginning  of 2006,  the project  of constitutional  treaty  is still at the centre  of most  EU discussions. Does this mean that the process of ratification is being rejuvenated or is it the sign of a profound deadlock in which the EU institutions and political leaders are stuck? What course will follow the EU […]