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GEAB 135

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 May 2019

Middle East: The summer will be hot

We would like to remind you that one of the main guiding principles for analysing North American foreign policy and current events in and around the Middle East is the annexation by Israel of all or part of the Occupied Territories.[1] Preparations are underway. The sending of US troops close to Iran is intended to prevent this country from moving – not to attack it directly.[2]

After the diplomatic phase that allowed Netanyahu to conciliate many Arab and other governments,[3] the strategy is now focused on people (Jewish diaspora, Israeli Jews, Israeli Arabs, Palestinians, Arabs, Europeans) through communications playing the depolarisation card:

  • Leaking out some elements of Donald Trump’s peace plan to test it among Israelis[4]
  • Showing to the world that the installation of the US Embassy in Jerusalem is not a problem[5]
  • Sending signs of goodwill towards the Palestinians (measured reactions to missile fires,[6] rejection of a proposal to ban Palestinians from highways[7]…)
  • Revealing the good living conditions of the Arabs in Israel[8]
  • Questioning the low scores of the Arab parties in the last election in Israel[9]
  • Focusing on forms of “Palestinian Spring” directed against Palestinian leaders[10]
  • Suggesting that Palestinians would live better in Israel than under occupation and in Israel than under Palestinian rule[11] and that their support for the two-State solution is diminishing[12]
  • Projecting visions of the region at peace[13]

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