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African Union: The end of the CFA franc (from the GEAB 110 / Dec 2016)

Africa! The second largest continent in the world after Asia, both in size and population[1], and also one of the poorest[2] is shaken by internal conflicts and wars. But above all, it’s a continent with one of the youngest age pyramids in the world[3]; so many opportunities open for the future and for hope in […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (jul 2019)

Air transportation: Turbulence zone We have already warned against the risk of crisis in this sector (aircraft manufacturers, airline companies and infrastructure). In fact, the crisis is already well under way, as shown by the difficulties Boeing has encountered, the challenges to the Airbus-Boeing duopoly following the emergence of Asian competition, the crisis of low-cost […]

Future of the European Tourism : The ‘Lascaux Cave’ Syndrome

The Lascaux cave is a prehistoric site discovered in the Dordogne in 1940. Soon after, it was opened as a tourist attraction, which ended up endangering the magnificent rock paintings. So much so that in 1963 it was closed to the public[1]… or, rather, reserved for specialists. A replica of the cave and its paintings, […]

European Tourism 2020-2030: The improbable alliance between tourism and protectionism

Contrary to the feverish dreams of officials in Brussels and our capitals, fuelled by the prospect of an exponential growth in the global flow of tourists, the EU will soon cease to be the world’s main tourist destination. We anticipate that, in 2025, Europe will lose its leading position to Asia. Over the next decade, […]

Coming soon, the GEAB special file: European tourism in crisis (synopsis)

European Tourism 2020-2030: The improbable alliance between tourism and protectionism Contrary to the feverish dreams of officials in Brussels and our capitals, fuelled by the prospect of an exponential growth in the global flow of tourists, the EU will soon cease to be the world’s main tourist destination. We anticipate that, in 2025, Europe will […]

‘Europe insists on financing the present where the Americans and Chinese are financing the future’

Interview with Eric Leandri, CEO of Qwant CEO and co-founder of the French search engine Qwant[1], Éric Leandri shares with GEAB readers his conviction that the US-China trade war offers Europe a window of opportunity to be exploited by focusing on the unique features of the European model. In the trade war between the United […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (May 2019)

– Air transport in Europe: Don’t bet your shirt on this – Yuan: Quick!!  – Dollar: Discount on US staff! – Gold: Back to the standard _____________________________ Air transport in Europe: Don’t bet your shirt on this Low-cost airlines are being forced to cut more and more services that large companies are able to provide […]

2020: the next global crash

Everyone seems to agree on a soft landing for 2019, if with rather gloomy figures. Landing the Plane is the Goldman Sachs title of their analysis for 2019, although some strategists are more pessimistic, especially regarding US and European growth prospects. Everything seems to hang on the impossible Brexit situation (both for the remainers and the Brexiteers): […]

People of the future

Here we present the latest addition to our Bricks of the future section: The Who’s Who? Or People of the future. Just as organisations have a vocation to stabilise at the risk of obstructing the future, human beings have a vocation to activate at the risk of destroying the future. It is therefore time for […]

Political Anticipation Notes: The rural/urban divide

Rural and urban lifestyles have always been different and, clearly, where you live is just one of many divides that affect our societies.  But this divide is one that has been changing over the years and where a crunch is likely to hit with consequences for politics, economics and society. The basic trends What is […]

Migration flows: The challenges of depletion

It may seem daring to say that major migratory invasions are not going to be part of the future of Europe at a time when the hard-won ‘Libyan lock’ following the fall of Gaddafi in 2011 is about to be broken again. However, we have arguments showing that, in the short to medium term, a […]

Towards a ‘Francophone Economic Sphere’ (FES)

Emmanuel Macron took power in order to serve a European agenda through the reintegration of France (marginalised since 2003[1] but without which there is no Europe) into the heart of the Concert of European Nations. The idea was that by showing goodwill through the making of reforms in conformity with the EU, France and its […]

Bricks of the future: A Reader’s Digest of the anticipations found on the net

The future is this web made of all the threads humans weave between themselves and tomorrow. In the work GEAB teams have undertaken to understand the ‘web’ of the future, it is very important to identify the anticipations, projects and strategies that seem most relevant and effective. As you know, we are particularly keen to […]

Eurozone: The banking union as a solution

From a budgetary point of view, this compromise can only lead to a kind of status quo. The institutional architecture will stay close to that drafted by the 2011-2013 reforms that were based on unilateral recoveries in competitiveness. All transfers between states will be conditioned and will do nothing to help rebalance the eurozone. They will […]

Looming financial crisis: A self-fulfilling narrative?

Happy New Black Clouds? The standard wishes for a Happy New Year seem almost out of place for many, given the black clouds[1] that seem to be gathering over the economy of the United State of America (US)[2] and the political threats to the economy existing in the European Union (EU).[3] The proximate causes are […]

Panorama 2019: 36 “up and down” trends for the year ahead

As every year, LEAP is presenting a brief overview of the major ‘up and down’ trends[1] for the coming year. Besides the intellectual value of this contribution, which, of course, reflects many of the analyses of  our researchers over the last few months, the aim is to provide a better understanding of the main issues […]

African Union: One road, One continent, One currency. The end of the CFA franc

Africa! The second largest continent in the world after Asia, both in size and population[1], and also one of the poorest[2] is shaken by internal conflicts and wars. But above all, it’s a continent with one of the youngest age pyramids in the world[3]; so many opportunities open for the future and for hope in […]

September 2017 – Euro crisis: The ECB loses its independence

The post-Brexit Europe does not need the extreme right-wings, it is already lining up with the national-European model proposed by the British. The antagonism between European and national levels, which has dramatically increased within the crisis, due to a lack of democratic anchoring at the European level, has led in just 6 months to a […]