Category: economy
The European Union is facing a series of economic and political crises that threaten to shatter its model. Between the rise of nationalism, economic weakness and the failure of monetary policy, the EU seems to be out of breath. Could this be the very end of the United Europe? Isn’t it time to acknowledge that […]
The economic outlook for Western countries looks bleak, judging by a number of indicators. After the decision to cut interest rates slightly, and with the two leading countries in difficulty, the European economies appear to be the weakest and risk being exposed to an aggressive attitude from countries in better financial health. We touched on […]
The Euro in your pocket: A sense of belonging to Europe The relationship we have with money is charged with affectivity and emotion, extending beyond its economic, financial, and monetary dimensions to encompass social, cultural, and emotional values. Similarly, the Euro’s introduction has profoundly influenced European attitudes, marking a significant shift. With the emergence of […]
Among the anticipated back to basics, few measures hold as much potential efficacy as money itself. In times of mounting difficulties and risks, reverting to fundamental principles becomes imperative. Politicians are already taking heed of this necessity by doubling down on bold and assertive monetary policies. This is obvious in ongoing debates surrounding central bank […]
Marie-Hélène Caillol, President of LEAP and author of this article, draws on the work carried out with the Real-Futur Excellence Centre of the INSEEC-MSc business school, (PERF) which she founded and which she has been leading since January 2024 on the theme of “The future of Human performance in Post-ChatGPT Corporations”. The arrival of ChatGPT […]
Eurozone: State bankruptcies on the horizon? Stagflation, recession, rising credit costs, unemployment… the negative signals are multiplying for the eurozone economies. As the end of the year approaches, these indicators are going to hit the headlines and it is going to become increasingly complicated for governments to put on a brave face. The direct consequence […]
With the subprime crisis (2007/2009), the rescue plans for banks and financial institutions reached such dizzying heights that we did not expect to see them again any time soon. Since then, the global debt clock has continued to churn out figures that are just as crazy… Between the Covid crisis (2020/2021), the Afghan debacle (2021), […]
One year on from the global recession: Navigating the new economy In September, JP Morgan’s monthly Global Manufacturing PMI recorded the twelfth consecutive global recession[1]. Just as we anticipated with inflation, recession is a lasting trend. We are entering a new economy in which a return to high interest rates (the norm), shortages and difficulties […]
Everyone knows that what doesn’t bend, breaks[1]. This is the short-term threat to the European Union’s economy. The supranational operation of its institutions is inflexible, and in the international economic competition in which it has found itself, it is up against much more agile competitors. At present, a fall in living standards, fuelled by inflation[2] […]
To be fair, political anticipation requires us to look back at past forecasts. This is what the LEAP team does every August by delving into the GEAB archives. This year, we went back to 2017 to rediscover our anticipations on China’s global power. While China’s position on the world stage is complex in relation to […]
Like many industries, the consumer sector is currently caught between technological advances and geopolitical, social and economic upheaval. Looking at the future of consumption is essential because, from necessities to entertainment, our consumption model and its links to the production model shape our everyday lives and our relationship with nature.[1] To get a glimpse of […]
The world is as big as we want it to be. Our team is dedicated to exploring the world’s geopolitical balances of power and opening a window on how they might evolve. While the future is the cornerstone of our editorial line, we also place the plurality of information at the heart of our work. […]
Never let a crisis go to waste. The US regional banking crisis continues to gather pace. As out of control as the situation seems, our team believes that the American and European political and financial authorities see it as a necessary evil to reinvent their economic system. This reinvention is a matter of survival for […]
We hear a lot about the end of civilisation linked to the arrival of AI, which ChatGPT has made clear for everyone. Human beings would have no or very little added value from now on, AI would be so much more than HI… We have news from the future that is both reassuring and disturbing. […]
Climate change has been shifting our relationship with water, bringing power and politics into human rights issues of access and management, because the powerless is particularly hit by this. Besides the question of access to safe water for domestic use, it is also a matter of sovereignty over the landscape.[1] Water also serves many purposes […]
For almost 20 years we have been anticipating a revolution in the international monetary system and in particular the emancipation of the global economy from the trade vehicle of the 20th century, the dollar.[1] Apparently, nothing has happened, the reason being that no one had any interest in the dollar disappearing overnight. So, the whole […]
For 17 years, the GEAB has been characterising one by one the phases of the global systemic transition process. As of April 2023, it is very clear that the “new world” (led by the BRICS), after a slow and uncertain revival almost 15 years ago, is now beginning its take-off phase. The new world is […]
The following article is the result of discussions between the GEAB editorial team and Dr Louis Arnoux. The latter’s work is far more alarmist than most research in the same field, namely the future of the oil industry and oil as a fuel for the world economy. The results and data discussed below, even though […]