Home Investments, trends and recommendations (May 2019)

GEAB 135

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 May 2019

Investments, trends and recommendations (May 2019)

– Air transport in Europe: Don’t bet your shirt on this
– Yuan: Quick!! 
– Dollar: Discount on US staff!
– Gold: Back to the standard

Air transport in Europe: Don’t bet your shirt on this

Low-cost airlines are being forced to cut more and more services that large companies are able to provide for the same price (e.g. the end of cabin luggage at RyanAir does not bode well for the future of a company which has thus proved that it no longer has a profit margin in a market that is tightening its belt[1]). KLM is saving AirFrance (to cut a long story short) while the acquisition of Alitalia doesn’t seem to raise many eyes. The Chinese are proposing to lay high speed rail lines between Asia and Europe. The climate debate is weighing more and more heavily against air transport. Tourist migration flows are soon to reach manageability limits. For all these reasons, we anticipate significant difficulties in the air transport sector, with the risk of a reversal by 2024. The latter will result from a return of investment capacity on the part of Europeans, which will finally make possible the launch of the major intra-continental high-speed rail projects designed in the late 1990s, as part of a growing implementation of the Paris Summit decisions, together with a rejection of mass tourism. All that will then be needed is to connect them, as part of a multimodal hub approach, with the high-speed train stations that have already been developed by European airports. We expect this trend to start to become apparent in about two years.


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