GEAB 190
As economic and political instability intensifies, our team takes a closer look at the forecasts of the major Western financial institutions. Between optimism and underestimated risks, these reports are as full of lessons as they are surprisingly consistent.
Given the growing instability in international economic and political affairs, our team has decided to redouble its efforts to anticipate trends in 2025. Not only will we be publishing, as is our custom, our structuring trends for the year ahead in January, but we have also decided to take a closer look at the publications of the major Western financial institutions to edit a critical summary[1]. These reports are always rich in information, and we must rely on the power of influence inherent in these financial players, which gives them the ability to formulate self-fulfilling prophecies, through their investment choices and the advice they give to other political and economic players.
The papers are broadly consistent, highlighting a number of similarities: the easing of monetary policy, the resilience of weak global growth, an optimistic trajectory for the US economy, AI as a promising sector, and the influence of the unstable global geopolitical situation. Nevertheless, disagreements are emerging on other themes, growth projections or in the detail of the analysis of certain trends such as the promise of AI, the economic future of climate policies, or the dynamics of world trade.
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