Home Les bulletins GEAB GEAB 120 An evaluation of our anticipations for 2017 (drawn from GEAB No 111 of January 2017): 75% successful

GEAB 120

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Dec 2017

An evaluation of our anticipations for 2017 (drawn from GEAB No 111 of January 2017): 75% successful

Each year in December, we release an assessment of our trend expectations presented last January. This time, we end up with a final score of 27 out of 36, meaning a 75% success, exactly the same percentage as in 2016.

Currencies

Dollar – End of the exceptional status: 1

« As we saw two months ago, and contrary to what the markets anticipated at the announcement of D. Trump’s election, we maintain that the policy intended by the new president will rather favour a low dollar. Those who bet on an upward dollar will lose money: Trump is relying on re-industrialisation, taxes, protectionism and inflation rather than attracting foreign capitals. Therefore, it’s a lower dollar that he actually needs. Also, he will have the chance to place certain persons in the Fed as soon as he seizes power[1], something he will most gladly do. »

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In summary

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