Category: euro

The economic outlook for Western countries looks bleak, judging by a number of indicators. After the decision to cut interest rates slightly, and with the two leading countries in difficulty, the European economies appear to be the weakest and risk being exposed to an aggressive attitude from countries in better financial health. We touched on […]

Or rather “love at first sight”[1]. It may have escaped the attention of our readers, who tend to be more forward-thinking than the average citizens, that the United Kingdom is now preparing to temporarily entrust power to the Labour Party after seventeen years of Tory governance[2]. The remarkable aspect of British democracy is that you […]

The Euro in your pocket: A sense of belonging to Europe The relationship we have with money is charged with affectivity and emotion, extending beyond its economic, financial, and monetary dimensions to encompass social, cultural, and emotional values. Similarly, the Euro’s introduction has profoundly influenced European attitudes, marking a significant shift. With the emergence of […]

Oil: Break the prices and we’ll break you Expensive oil will be the norm in 2024. The GEAB has always believed that the arrival of the United States as the world’s leading oil producer would be short-lived due to a lack of sustainable reserves. The fracking sector is in crisis and private operators are buying […]

Bitcoin: Double-edged institutionalisation The United States’ recognition of Bitcoin’s legitimacy via the ETFs[1] will be a double-edged sword: it will consolidate the Bitcoin’s value and status in the short term[2]; in the long run, on the other hand, it could result in the United States taking control of this crypto. In terms of recommendations, we […]

From agriculture and printing press to the Internet, all technological advances have had socio-economic consequences, leading to profound changes in society. Easy access to the power of artificial intelligence will be no exception. This revolution concerns higher education graduates, who will be the first victims of the automation of work. This will increase several types […]

Dragging in its wake the Silvergate and Signature banks, the Silicon Valley Bank’s bankruptcy (SVB) remains the sad event illustrating this GEAB issue of March: as analysed/anticipated over the past three years, after the lyrical flights of Western tech at the start of the Covid crisis, painful returns to reality would inevitably be the batch […]

Currencies – Storm warning // Dollar – Earlier than expected // Sterling pound – Forever // Euro – Hard to foresee // Cryptocurrencies – Much ado about nothing // Gold – Towards a simple commodity // Cash – Keep it in mind… // Emerging markets – don’t get locked in // ________________ Currencies – Storm […]

Stock market: storm in sight for banking stocks // EUR/USD: the fall continues // China’s property crisis: bankruptcies in sight… // Building materials: shortages are worsening __________________________ Stock market: storm in sight for banking stocks The eurozone banking sector, once again shaken to its foundations by the latest scandal, Cum-Ex files[1], is the subject of […]

The global systemic crisis has spanned 12 years between its onset in 2008 and its conclusion in 2020, most of which correspond to the ‘decantation phase’ mentioned in the previous article. During that time, the LEAP team has kept an eye on many axes of transformation – governance, geopolitical configuration, economic models, the Middle East, […]

The ‘world-after’ is a phrase which was probably uppermost in most people’s minds during the period of global lockdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic. For the authors and readers of the GEAB, it is nothing new; this phrase has been at the centre of our anticipatory analyses since issue No.28 of October 2008. At the […]

Are the precious metal markets rushing to get ready for the biggest bull run in history? Recent actions by the London Bullion Market Association, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and many international bullion banks could be pointing towards a perfect storm in the precious metals sphere – one that could see a final collapse of the […]

What if the decision of the German Federal Constitutional Court (Bundesverfassungsgericht – BVerfG) of 5 May was to become the first key component of a European political and democratic system, rather than a spanner in the works? This was our initial reaction as the media exploded with articles, each more catastrophic than the last, on […]

Is the US oil industry undergoing a significant shift in its relationship with its government, now accepting levels of influence or direct control that would have been unthinkable only a few months ago?  Are the large oil companies, and the supply of energy they oversee, now so important to national security that they must be […]

Markets/financial products – Do we really need to mention this?  You don’t need our insight to realise this, but for the sake of clarity: it’s time to stay away from the financial markets. The strength of the evidence for this says a lot about the psychology of investors and its outlook for the market. Don’t […]

(what the GEAB said in September 2019) In reality, the IMF is not up to the refinancing challenge implemented by its creators. Indeed, how can it face the 22 trillion US public debt and repeated threats of US non-payment? Nor is it able to cope with the debt problems of the major European states or, […]

Bitcoin: Digital Gold The fairly sharp rise in the price of Bitcoin at the time of the Iranian-American crisis confirms the intuition we had in June: Bitcoin is acting as a safe haven. This observation leads us to recommend that you keep your Bitcoin, or even add moderately to them, in the light of the […]

As we do every year, GEAB by LEAP is presenting a landscape of the key trends for the coming year. Besides the intellectual value of this LEAP contribution, which, of course, reflects many of the analyses of our researchers over the last few months, we aim to provide a better understanding of the main issues […]