Archives

As in every stock market crisis, stocks will change hands. Insofar as the crisis is largely provoked, it is likely that state structures – starting with the United States – will take advantage of it to regain control of part of the economy. We propose a series of recommendations that take account of three predicates: […]

After almost 20 years of anticipating the collapse of the Western-centric system, the GEAB now feels it has a duty to continue to identify the crises in the making, but also to describe the emerging model. If anticipation is the history of the short- to medium-term future, this article is a sociology exercise of the […]

The dread of the climate crisis could soon be replaced by that of a “global seismic crisis”, i.e. a gradual increase in the number and severity of earthquakes. If we add to this the increase in sinkholes, it would seem that the ground is planning to give way beneath our feet more and more often… […]

At the crossroads of a Russian past, an American present and a European future, Ukraine, which for the last 3 years has been a testing ground for the wars of the 21st century, is on its way to becoming the key to Europe’s next-generation defence architecture, particularly in terms of arms production. The EU at […]

Stock markets are reeling in the wake of Donald Trump’s thunderous announcements. Is the US ruled by an erratic and reckless leader? Or are we witnessing the emancipation of politics from the ‘dictatorship’ of the markets? If it’s the latter, what strategic goals is the President truly pursuing, beyond merely declaring the return of politics […]

Europe has long benefited from a powerful economic engine: the household savings. Built up over decades, this financial cushion, estimated at 35.5 trillion euros (against 14 trillion public debt), has served both as a buffer in times of crises and a vital source of funding for the major transformations ahead – the climate transition, reindustrialisation, […]

35,500 billion euros is the total amount of European savings. It’s also the level of US federal debt. In twenty years, that debt has gone from 5% to 123% of GDP, generating an interest burden of 881 billion dollars – or 100 million every hour! Meanwhile, a tech bubble has masked the systemic cracks. Since […]

Water… let there be soil! In 2019, Saudi Arabia’s proven oil reserves were estimated at 263.1 billion barrels[1]. At the rate of production at the time, this was equivalent to around 70 years of production, which takes us to 2089. The oil-producing countries are all aiming to diversify, because the oil bonanza won’t last more […]

Nearly a hundred of you once again chose to respond to the February questionnaire. What stands out is that the question required nuance, as only a third of you identified with a clear-cut answer. Just over half of those who did responded that “ASEAN is the future of the EU,” while slightly fewer chose “The […]

Market Uncertainty – how smart money survives and thrives 2025 is shaping up to be a year of economic turbulence, with volatility defining global markets. Growth is sluggish, inflation is squeezing speculative investments and geopolitical forces are reshuffling capital flows. Traditional financial safe havens are no longer reliable, and investors clinging to outdated models are […]

The return to reality of our systems, analysed and anticipated by the GEAB for several years now, is now preparing to conquer the innovation sector. With artificial intelligence occupying everyone’s minds and dominating the media since the publication of ChatGPT by OpenAI at the end of 2022, you’d think we were in for another round […]

In a world where the future is unfolding at breakneck speed, the GEAB is inaugurating a new section, Terra Cognita 2089, to refine its short- and medium-term forecasts and continue to reduce the degree of strategic uncertainty among its readers. The aim is twofold: Increase our focus on the multipolar world (space deployment) and Open […]

Public International Law (PIL[1]) is on the brink of a forced revolution. This revolution, of which Trump will be the catalyst, is based on the inadequacies of the current system. This transformation raised several issues, particularly in terms of human rights. It will also be the source of a certain indifference as regards the protection […]

This fiction, edited by Christopher H. Cordey[1] assisted by AI, depicts an imaginary conversation between theorists of two worldviews clashing in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict: American hegemonism on the one hand and civilisational multipolarism on the other. 15 May 2016, 46° 05′ 09.46″ N 7° 44′ 36.92″ E, Refuge du Weisshorn, Canton Valais, Switzerland.   A […]

We anticipate that, in a few weeks’ time (sooner than we might think), a peace agreement will be signed between Russia and Ukraine, under American guidance, known as the Treaty of Riyadh[1], ushering in a new era for the Western system of power To gain a clearer picture, let’s take a series of the major […]

History has shown that even the most devastating wars sometimes lead to defining moments—when great treaties are signed, altering the course of the world. These agreements remain in history books not just for their impact, but for their ability to carve a path forward from a seemingly deadlocked future: Westphalia, Versailles, Yalta… and soon, perhaps, […]

At the start of this issue, we put forward the following hypothesis: Asia may be developing at breakneck speed, but it is ultimately following the same economic model of the West, and Europe in particular, into the crisis we all know about. So instead of looking down their noses at poor Europe, the Asians and […]

2025: Western Sahara, the new investment hotspot! We believe that the Morocco-Algerian disagreement over the Western Sahara will come to an end by 2025. Progress has been slow but steady. In 2020, Trump broke the support – both unconditional and ineffective – of the West as a whole (France, Spain, Europe, the United States, the […]