Category: Magazine
RECOMMENDATIONS Central theme: as stated last month, the trade tensions created by Donald Trump were indeed negotiating levers. In this context, the UK, China, soon the EU…, are redefining their trade frameworks with the US, customs barriers are being lowered, globalization is being reorganized and financial markets are racing ahead. Gold: The bubble bursts The […]
TREND In a world where capital, goods and people circulate easily, a new axis of competition is emerging between the powers of the multipolar world: that of capturing populations with high purchasing power. The “rich”, along with talent, energy, water, etc., are among the strategic assets we must try to secure. Very low taxes, easy […]
SIGNS While the digital age seems to promise a more integrated, centralized world, we are witnessing a reverse dynamic: a return to feudal logic. Governors, technology barons, federated states and strategic companies are increasingly bypassing centers of power to impose their rules, defend their territories and forge their own alliances. This month, our “Indices column, […]
VIEW An article in the GEAB of March, in the form of a vision rather than an anticipation, suggested a sustainable way out of the current Western crisis by transforming NATO from a transatlantic to a transarctic organization[1]. It’s not often that we judge one of our articles to be of such strategic importance, and […]
VISION The Terra Cognita 2089 section is designed to open up a wider time frame for our anticipations. Based on a critical analysis of the long-term strategic documents (Visions) produced by a growing number of countries and regions, we map out the global future that major world players are in the process of designing. In […]
ANTICIPATION America takes control of the Western Roman Empire. And that’s good news! The United States, no longer defined solely by its WASP[1] identity, stands as the Vatican’s largest financial contributor, providing €13.6 million, or 28.1% of total funding. In contrast, combined European contributions amount to around €7.9 million, or 16.3%[2]. As a result, American […]
EDITORIAL The global systemic transition that we have been relentlessly studying for 19 years has taught us that major crises force us to revisit all of history: Bretons Woods, the end of World War II, the Industrial Age, the divisions of the Reformation, the great discoveries of the 15th century, the great empires… the deeper […]
As in every stock market crisis, stocks will change hands. Insofar as the crisis is largely provoked, it is likely that state structures – starting with the United States – will take advantage of it to regain control of part of the economy. We propose a series of recommendations that take account of three predicates: […]
After almost 20 years of anticipating the collapse of the Western-centric system, the GEAB now feels it has a duty to continue to identify the crises in the making, but also to describe the emerging model. If anticipation is the history of the short- to medium-term future, this article is a sociology exercise of the […]
The dread of the climate crisis could soon be replaced by that of a “global seismic crisis”, i.e. a gradual increase in the number and severity of earthquakes. If we add to this the increase in sinkholes, it would seem that the ground is planning to give way beneath our feet more and more often… […]
At the crossroads of a Russian past, an American present and a European future, Ukraine, which for the last 3 years has been a testing ground for the wars of the 21st century, is on its way to becoming the key to Europe’s next-generation defence architecture, particularly in terms of arms production. The EU at […]
Stock markets are reeling in the wake of Donald Trump’s thunderous announcements. Is the US ruled by an erratic and reckless leader? Or are we witnessing the emancipation of politics from the ‘dictatorship’ of the markets? If it’s the latter, what strategic goals is the President truly pursuing, beyond merely declaring the return of politics […]
Europe has long benefited from a powerful economic engine: the household savings. Built up over decades, this financial cushion, estimated at 35.5 trillion euros (against 14 trillion public debt), has served both as a buffer in times of crises and a vital source of funding for the major transformations ahead – the climate transition, reindustrialisation, […]
35,500 billion euros is the total amount of European savings. It’s also the level of US federal debt. In twenty years, that debt has gone from 5% to 123% of GDP, generating an interest burden of 881 billion dollars – or 100 million every hour! Meanwhile, a tech bubble has masked the systemic cracks. Since […]
Water… let there be soil! In 2019, Saudi Arabia’s proven oil reserves were estimated at 263.1 billion barrels[1]. At the rate of production at the time, this was equivalent to around 70 years of production, which takes us to 2089. The oil-producing countries are all aiming to diversify, because the oil bonanza won’t last more […]
Nearly a hundred of you once again chose to respond to the February questionnaire. What stands out is that the question required nuance, as only a third of you identified with a clear-cut answer. Just over half of those who did responded that “ASEAN is the future of the EU,” while slightly fewer chose “The […]
Market Uncertainty – how smart money survives and thrives 2025 is shaping up to be a year of economic turbulence, with volatility defining global markets. Growth is sluggish, inflation is squeezing speculative investments and geopolitical forces are reshuffling capital flows. Traditional financial safe havens are no longer reliable, and investors clinging to outdated models are […]
The return to reality of our systems, analysed and anticipated by the GEAB for several years now, is now preparing to conquer the innovation sector. With artificial intelligence occupying everyone’s minds and dominating the media since the publication of ChatGPT by OpenAI at the end of 2022, you’d think we were in for another round […]