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Investments, trends and recommendations (Oct 2019)

Monetary Policy – beware of the direction change The shift towards the green colour of the economic indicators linked to the reduction in trade tensions at the end of the year, combined with the rebellion against accommodative monetary policies expressed by major central bankers, suggest a proportional reversal of the trend, particularly in key interest […]

Focus on: Challenges for the chemical industry in Europe

The chemical industry in Europe is facing many challenges resulting from changes in its competitive position, global and local environment issues, as well as regulatory and technological innovation. A priori, Europe is not well positioned right now; but this could be turned into an advantage, if there is an entrepreneurial will – and the preparedness […]

2020: The transatlantic trap of the new Greece

Since July 8, the ‘Tsipras parenthesis’ that did so much to enrage the European Union, the United States and so many other interests, was closed. The wind of hope and renewal that blew over the country in 2015, when a man who didn’t come from one of the great dynasties (Samaras, Mitsotákis, Papandreou, Karamanlis) succeeded […]

GlobalEurope Future Agenda (October-February): 56 dates that will change the world (or not)

To be able to advance in a complex world that is in full transition, it is helpful to have a GPS system. This triannual calendar of future events is one of the many guides that GEAB offers to readers to help them navigate through the fog of the future. Here are the ’56 events that […]

October 31, 2019: The great “coup de Trafalgar” of the Anglo-Saxons

As an overview and introduction to our GlobalEurope Future Agenda in 56 dates, we anticipate a year’s end full of surprises and reversals – ‘surprises’ in terms of mainstream media thinking, but in line with many of our past analyses. Brexit: Protectionist England or Protectionist Europe? At the heart of these trend reversals, there is […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Sept 2019)

Finance – First openings in the Chinese market Our investment recommendations on the Chinese financial market are not easy to follow due to lack of accessibility. However, gradually the Chinese financial market is opening up to the outside world and the first trading platforms are on the horizon. During our research in Hong Kong, we […]

Hong Kong 2025: A suburb of Shenzhen

Between a USD-pegged currency (the HKD) and the reaffirmation of its Chinese nature after its handover in 1997, Hong Kong lies right at the heart of the famous trade war between the United States and China. This context largely explains the island’s economic difficulties, creating the conditions for the well-known troubles. A longer-term perspective also […]

2020: IMF, a collateral victim of the US-China trade war

It’s not only Hong Kong that finds itself in the middle of the crossfire of the US-China trade war. The IMF may also be on the list of collateral victims of the great tectonic plate movement currently at work. In recent years, Beijing has increased its voting weight and added the Yuan to the basket […]

Future demographics: questioning certainties

In developed nations, there is a clear trend to living longer and having fewer children.[1] Certain countries have countered this trend through (planned or unplanned) immigration,[2] but this approach also causes change, with new ethnic mixes, and imported cultures, which in turn has led to a political backlash.[3] It is also well accepted that, as […]

Bolton – World – US 2020: An American Perestroika

In line with our anticipations in 2006 regarding the fall of the second half of the bipolar system centred around Russia and the United States, the recent dismissal of Trump’s security adviser, the neo-conservative John Bolton, is in our view a historic event of the same symbolic significance as Gorbachev’s launch of perestroika[1]. By openly […]

Second quarter 2019: Epilogue of the creation of Greater Israel (excerpt / GEAB 133, March 2019)

We estimate that there is a very high (70%) probability of the imminent launch of a rapid and brutal birthing process of Greater Israel. Figure 1: Comparison between the presentation of the Israeli districts in the Wikipedia in French (left) and the Wikipedia in Hebrew (right) in their version of August 2015. The Wikipedia in […]

NEOM, between a New Jerusalem and the Library of Alexandria (excerpt / GEAB 125, May 2018)

The Middle Eastern mega-city project called NEOM[1] that we have told you about in a previous issue is a real reason to hope. As mentioned last time, the Saudis would not proceed with this project if they truly had in mind an open conflict with Iran. This project is first and foremost a symbol of […]

Israel-Palestine: Somewhere between dream and nightmare (excerpt / GEAB 120, Dec. 2017)

We can not help going back to the Middle East this month, simply because what is happening now looks so much like we had been anticipating for several years and announced at the beginning of 2017 in our list of “up and down trends”: Saudi Arabia’s emergence as a new strong player in the region, […]

Saudi Arabia-Israel-Iran: The creation of a Middle East 3.0 (excerpt / GEAB 119, Nov. 2017)

The end of the year will be rich in surprises and escalation risks, as we have been saying for the last two months. Currently, all eyes are on the Middle East, the world’s powder keg, and on the tensions emerging around Lebanon, involving nothing less than protagonists like the United States, Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia […]

Turkish Elections – The impossibility of chaos in Turkey (excerpt / GEAB 98, Oct. 2015)

We have repeatedly analyzed that only the regional powers would be able to restore calm in the Middle East and resolve the Daesh issue, the common enemy on which (almost) everyone has agreed. However, we have stated that the US or Russian interventions would only have the effect of exacerbating tensions. Repeatedly missed opportunities Suffice […]

Military coup d’etat in Egypt – 5 to 10 lost years for Middle Eastern democracy… to the political explosion in Saudi Arabia? (excerpt / GEAB 77, Sept. 2013)

The West couldn’t help but acknowledge the Morsi’s overthrow by the military in Egypt on 3 July last. Fortunately, everyone quickly realised that one can hardly claim democracy and greet a military coup d’état. Certainly, the appearance of a large popular movement was able, for a few days, to delude international opinion on the nature […]

Israel 2020: Two scenarios for the future (excerpt / GEAB 7, Sept. 2006)

Scenario 1: Towards the end of the State of Israel / Scenario 2: Towards a durable Israeli state Continuing its in-depth analysis of the consequences of the end of the world order which had been the legacy of WWII, LEAP/E2020 started several months ago a strategic reflexion on the future of Israel. In this number […]

Middle East Retrospective: 7 Scenarios for one Vision

This summer of 2019, in which the Middle East continues to be in the spotlight, we have found and gathered 7 scenarios which are emblematic of our vision of the region’s future. They will be presented here exactly as originally published. The originality of our team’s anticipations of the Middle East region’s future is thus […]