GEAB 188

Changes in the attractiveness of different regions and in their attitudes to accepting foreign populations will naturally lead to a reorganisation of migratory flows. In this major rebalancing, the EU appears to be the least well placed, while the Gulf States and, to a lesser extent, Asia will become increasingly important. Finally, the regionalisation of flows already underway on the African continent is likely to be reinforced by the development of the most successful economies.

At a time when Europe, like the rest of the world, is facing a sharp fall in the number of births, heralding a sharp demographic decline^[1], political representatives at national and European levels are tightening their immigration policies^[2]. Europeans’ failure to take a long-term view will mean we lose the great game of demographic rebalancing, because in the face of population decline, migration remains one of the most effective solutions^[3]. Indeed, while walls are going up all over Europe, economic opportunities are multiplying in the Middle East, Asia and Oceania^[4]. This dual phenomenon will lead to a redirection of migratory flows.

Figure 1: Fertility rates worldwide – Source: World Sociological Atlas 2023

This change in migration routes will be proportional to the gradual opening of doors by other regions of the world. Immigration is effectively a temporary solution to the problem of demographic decline. In absolute terms, the decline in the human population is not bad news. The real problem lies in the speed of this decline and the vicious circle into which obsolete social and economic models around the world risk being drawn. Welcoming migratory flows can slow demographic decline and give our societies time to adapt to a new sociological reality: the human population is going down whether we like it or not.