Home 2050 – The world will be more Amish than Transhuman

GEAB 188

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Oct 2024

2050 – The world will be more Amish than Transhuman

The birth rate has always been very high in religious, traditionalist and conservative communities. To anticipate what our future generations will be dreaming of, it is vital to ask which communities are having the most children today.

The dystopian world foreseen by the grim prophets of hyper-tech won’t come to pass. The reason is simple: the populations they focus on are no longer having children. Instead, let’s consider who is still having children and how they engage with technology, because the future belongs to them.

The big polling institutes with their deep pockets are therefore welcome to do this work in detail. For our part, we will confine ourselves, provocatively, to saying that 2050 will be more Amish than Transhuman.

Yes, the Amish society is prosperous! And it’s not the result of any proselytism. The Amish simply have children, lots of them. With families of 6 to 9 children, and often 10 (compared with the American average of 1.9 children per household), their population doubles every 20 years. In 2023, they were 384,290, an increase of 116% since 2000.[1]

You might say this is just a drop in the vast ocean of humanity. And yet … 

Comments

To leave a comment sign up now
Contents

This issue reminds everyone (readers and writers alike) of the extent of the statistical fog currently defining our times. In choosing demography this month, you may say that we focused [...]

Population decline threatens to become collapse. Whatever happens, it will lead to some form of economic decline. Our economic models, based on infinite growth, need to be reinvented. Degrowth is [...]

Changes in the attractiveness of different regions and in their attitudes to accepting foreign populations will naturally lead to a reorganisation of migratory flows. In this major rebalancing, the EU [...]

In 2048, Israel, far from celebrating its centenary, may no longer exist in its current form. The challenge does not come from its external enemies, but from demographic challenges, internal [...]

Last month our team published its calendar of future global geopolitical events up to January 2025. The calendar was so full that we were unable to mention the economic, monetary [...]

Lithium concentration continues Last week, Rio Tinto, an Anglo-Australian major in the lithium sector, confirmed the purchase of Arcadium Lithium, which owns the main lithium mine in Argentina, one of [...]

Related articles
GEAB
15 Nov 2024

Emerging markets: Four years of future investment and growth opportunities

#africa #economy #émergents #investment #trump #world

New emerging countries are making their mark on the international scene and positioning themselves as strategic markets. They represent the vanguard of growth drivers for a changing global economy, offering [...]

GEAB
15 Nov 2024

2029 – African debt shock: After the IMF and World Bank, how will African economies be financed?

#africa #debt #finance #IMF #investment #trump #world #Worldbank

In the coming years, the African continent will find itself more isolated than ever. Its relations with the global system and Western countries have reached a point of dysfunction that [...]

GEAB
15 Nov 2024

Africa’s investment horizon 2030: Welcome to the conglomerates’ masquerade!

#africa #companies #finance #investment #trump #world

While economic conglomerates may be on the decline worldwide, they remain the dominant force for foreign investment in Africa. This overview highlights the most influential structures on the continent, revealing [...]