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GEAB 188

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Oct 2024
Free excerpt

This issue reminds everyone (readers and writers alike) of the extent of the statistical fog currently defining our times. In choosing demography this month, you may say that we focused on a reliable, factual field. Birth rates, the recording of births and deaths, as well as censuses are widespread and deeply rooted practices around the world. One might think that AI would help with those related figures and yet, this is not the case. Even at the UN, an institution with a reach and resources beyond those of all others, inaccuracies, and consequently uncertainties, are commonplace.

Much like scientists who, as they learn and collect new knowledge, discover how much more they must learn, our societies, as they develop statistical measurement tools, discover how far they are from ‘truth’ and sometimes even from reality. Is this because we live in an increasingly complex world? Or is it because our statistical tools only allow us to measure the extent of the complexity we are powerless to deal with? From the very beginning, our anticipation method has taken this into account by requiring a multidisciplinary and global approach. This is the only way we can consider the many factors that will impact on the trend we are trying to define, and therefore anticipate the disruptions that may alter it. In the case of demographics, how can we leave aside the fact that in our collective unconscious, the sensation of overpopulation would automatically have a downward effect? Why choose to focus almost exclusively on births when deaths play an equally important role? Why insist on linear projections when history repeats itself, but never with the same words, for the same causes and without producing the same effects?

The exponential growth of statistics goes hand in hand with the importance and even the collective confidence that we are tempted to place in them. And when they turn out to be inaccurate, or even false, we are all the more destabilised. And so we find ourselves in the middle of a fog, unable to distinguish precisely in which direction we are moving. That’s why our method has never focused on numbers alone. Of course, we use factual data to build and support our anticipations, but we treat them in the same way as decisions, cultural biases and even the irrationality of the players involved. Although they may not appear to be quantified, and could therefore be considered less precise, they shape our daily lives just as much, and it is therefore necessary to take them into account if we want to get closer to the truth about the future. This enables us to develop finer, more subtle anticipations than forward-looking projections, which all too often boil down to linear curves.

Use this monthly bulletin as a fog light for your GPS guiding you through future events. We use this image regularly because it reminds us of the way our brains work when we’re at the wheel of a car. Our senses perceive the signals sent by the road on which we are travelling and anticipate the choices we will have to make to navigate or react to unforeseen events. When we insist, in fog, on lighting up the road as we would on a clear day, all we get is a smokescreen. It’s at times like these that it’s necessary to change tools to obtain more appropriate lighting. By taking the nebulous world of statistics off its pedestal and bringing it into line with the other tools we use to understand our present, not only can we see more clearly when it comes to navigating the future, but we can also take better account of the uncertainties that never fail to present themselves to us. All that’s left for us to do now is to wish you the best of luck on your journey. You can count on us to keep you on the right track.

***

Anticipation according to LEAP is a stylistic exercise consisting of proposing statements about the future, based on rationally articulated factual arguments, serving as beacons on the landscape that each of us is preparing to cross. These light markers are then submitted to our reflections, exchanges, observations and revisions, to feed our collective and individual intelligence of the future. More than an information medium, the GEAB is the dock from which you can sail into the future. It’s up to you!

How exactly do you use our GEAB bulletin? Should you wish to talk to our team, here is our email contact: [email protected]

 

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Contents

Population decline threatens to become collapse. Whatever happens, it will lead to some form of economic decline. Our economic models, based on infinite growth, need to be reinvented. Degrowth is [...]

Changes in the attractiveness of different regions and in their attitudes to accepting foreign populations will naturally lead to a reorganisation of migratory flows. In this major rebalancing, the EU [...]

The birth rate has always been very high in religious, traditionalist and conservative communities. To anticipate what our future generations will be dreaming of, it is vital to ask which [...]

In 2048, Israel, far from celebrating its centenary, may no longer exist in its current form. The challenge does not come from its external enemies, but from demographic challenges, internal [...]

Last month our team published its calendar of future global geopolitical events up to January 2025. The calendar was so full that we were unable to mention the economic, monetary [...]

Lithium concentration continues Last week, Rio Tinto, an Anglo-Australian major in the lithium sector, confirmed the purchase of Arcadium Lithium, which owns the main lithium mine in Argentina, one of [...]

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