“Be greedy when others are fearful”[1] The great feature of 2024 is its jam-packed electoral calendar. This year, almost three billion people will be voting in 76 countries, including major ones like India, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, Russia, South Africa, Algeria, Rwanda and, of course, the United States. All these countries find themselves in a […]
The political landscape of the European Union is undergoing a paradoxical reconfiguration: ideas from the right, and even more so from the far right, are on the rise; yet the traditional conservative right is living out its final hours, at least as an autonomous political force. This is due to the very strong polarisation of […]
This is one of the most serious crises facing the space sector, particularly in the West, and it will determine the future balance of powers. Already listed as one of the “reality shocks” in last year’s special GEAB (July 2022), the issue of human resources is now crucial in the general ecosystem, where we will […]
We are not going to draw up a calendar of all the elections, but of those which seem to us to be the most significant. In 2023, for example, ten African states will hold national elections: Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon, Liberia, Libya (if they are not postponed again), Madagascar, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, […]
We continue our focus on India with this brief on the 2024 elections. The 543 Members of Parliament representing the 28 states + the 8 Indian territories will be elected. In 2024 Narendra Modi, then 74 years old, will have been at the head of the Indian government for 10 years and will be running […]
We are inaugurating with Marie Poisson this new section “Reader’s view on the Future“. Marie’s life is an atypical journey, as she lives on her boat in Thailand. She used to be an antique dealer in Paris and, at the same time, she had set up a computer maintenance company. She changed her life to […]
While the West is gradually withdrawing its assets from China in anticipation of worsening tensions between the West and the Middle Kingdom,[1] and is becoming aware that its reindustrialisation is facing innumerable difficulties (financial, environmental, human), India appears to be the ideal replacement solution: a large and cheap workforce,[2] a desire for development “at all […]
Article written by Michael Kahn, an independent adviser on innovation anticipation, policy, monitoring and evaluation. Professor Kahn is honorary Research Fellow at Stellenbosch University and Professor of Practice in the University of Johannesburg, He works with governments, the multilateral organisations, NGOs and higher education. His most recent publications are the UNESCO GO-SPIN Report for Mozambique, a […]
One hundred years ago this year, the Ottoman Empire collapsed.[1] Officially born in 1299, it was mainly with the capture of Constantinople in 1453 that the empire was born from a European perspective. Until a hundred years ago, for more than five centuries, Europeans and Ottomans lived side by side, brothers and enemies and sometimes […]
To begin this year, our team would like to warmly thank all of our readers who responded to the questionnaire we sent you in our previous issue. Many of you have expressed interest and enthusiasm in the idea of building a space for research, reflection and anticipation, in which we can share our knowledge and […]
The tangle of all the crises in the making is reaching such an intensity that it is hard to believe that a major rupture will not occur by the end of the year. Not to mention wars and other conflicts,[1] inflation,[2] shortages,[3] unprecedented widespread impoverishment,[4] “hurricane of famines”,[5] natural disasters,[6] drought,[7] blackouts,[8]… if it is […]
Congress is an important part of a well-oiled political system, and many of its features (like the support for America’s endless wars) are bi-partisan or uniparty. But the DC system has, for a long time, been in an existential crisis which has led America to experience a populist alternative for four years with the election […]
In these times of crisis, it is difficult to follow a calendar of the future, as international and national agendas are so overwhelmed by fresh news. On the one hand, the Ukrainian crisis is cutting off all meetings, mainly on the American and European sides, whose agendas are jostling for solutions at summits and crisis […]
If we observe Peter Thiel today, his networks, his ideology and his levers of influence, we get a glimpse of a certain American Republican party planning to run in the 2024 elections.[1] The wealthy Silicon Valley investor and early Trump supporter has recently put aside some of his business roles, notably inside Meta, to focus […]
In 1450, Gutenberg invented the printing press and published his first Bible. 100 years later, the Council of Trent invented the “index librorum prohibitorum”.[1] In between, Luther initiated the reform movement of the Catholic Church. 500 years later, in 1995, the West invented the Internet. Twenty years later, as a result of a multi-directional questioning […]
A cluster of major trends 2022 is shaping up to be a complicated year… After the great pause of 2020, 2021 tried to make it look like things would return to normal. Instead, as we anticipated at the beginning of last year, every hint of recovery has led to new fractures in the old system: […]
There is no doubt that the collective unconscious of the West feels threatened by an overpopulated humanity. Everything contributes to this diffuse feeling[1] : . The post-pandemic return to life and street crowds suddenly made unbearable by comparison with the calm of the lockdown. . The highlighting of a non-Western world ten times more numerous than […]
When anticipations are being regularly published, as is the case of the GEAB, “the future is already here” is a very innocent phrase. Although, it rarely resonates as eloquently as it does when we speak of the modification of the human genome: acquiring control over the DNA of an unborn person, i.e., controlling the biological […]