Category: society

The birth rate has always been very high in religious, traditionalist and conservative communities. To anticipate what our future generations will be dreaming of, it is vital to ask which communities are having the most children today. The dystopian world foreseen by the grim prophets of hyper-tech won’t come to pass. The reason is simple: […]

Changes in the attractiveness of different regions and in their attitudes to accepting foreign populations will naturally lead to a reorganisation of migratory flows. In this major rebalancing, the EU appears to be the least well placed, while the Gulf States and, to a lesser extent, Asia will become increasingly important. Finally, the regionalisation of […]

Population decline threatens to become collapse. Whatever happens, it will lead to some form of economic decline. Our economic models, based on infinite growth, need to be reinvented. Degrowth is not an ideology; it is a reality that is imposing itself on the world. Our team offers as proof the mother of all change: demography. […]

The elections were held and unfortunately they fulfilled all the promises we had identified. But not just us. Nothing very extraordinary, except that it was made very clear that on 9 June we were not witnessing “a” European election (by which we mean that European citizens elected their MEPs on a European programme) but twenty-seven […]

At what expense? And to what end? These are two questions that should arise organically as artificial intelligence technologies are implemented. However, currently, this doesn’t seem to be the case. There is a stark contrast in attitudes among the political and economic leaders overseeing the development and deployment of AI technology. They appear to have […]

Marie-Hélène Caillol, President of LEAP and author of this article, draws on the work carried out with the Real-Futur Excellence Centre of the INSEEC-MSc business school, (PERF) which she founded and which she has been leading since January 2024 on the theme of “The future of Human performance in Post-ChatGPT Corporations”. The arrival of ChatGPT […]

The debate over whether the heads of the largest US technology companies or successive US Presidents wield the most power has persisted for many years. While the ascendance of the private sector is undeniable, with the market capitalisation or revenue of these companies now surpassing the GDP of most states, the balance of power has […]

“Be greedy when others are fearful”[1] The great feature of 2024 is its jam-packed electoral calendar. This year, almost three billion people will be voting in 76 countries, including major ones like India, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, Russia, South Africa, Algeria, Rwanda and, of course, the United States. All these countries find themselves in a […]

The political landscape of the European Union is undergoing a paradoxical reconfiguration: ideas from the right, and even more so from the far right, are on the rise; yet the traditional conservative right is living out its final hours, at least as an autonomous political force. This is due to the very strong polarisation of […]

This is one of the most serious crises facing the space sector, particularly in the West, and it will determine the future balance of powers. Already listed as one of the “reality shocks” in last year’s special GEAB (July 2022), the issue of human resources is now crucial in the general ecosystem, where we will […]

We are not going to draw up a calendar of all the elections, but of those which seem to us to be the most significant. In 2023, for example, ten African states will hold national elections: Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon, Liberia, Libya (if they are not postponed again), Madagascar, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, […]

We continue our focus on India with this brief on the 2024 elections. The 543 Members of Parliament representing the 28 states + the 8 Indian territories will be elected. In 2024 Narendra Modi, then 74 years old, will have been at the head of the Indian government for 10 years and will be running […]

We are inaugurating with Marie Poisson this new section “Reader’s view on the Future“. Marie’s life is an atypical journey, as she lives on her boat in Thailand. She used to be an antique dealer in Paris and, at the same time, she had set up a computer maintenance company. She changed her life to […]

While the West is gradually withdrawing its assets from China in anticipation of worsening tensions between the West and the Middle Kingdom,[1] and is becoming aware that its reindustrialisation is facing innumerable difficulties (financial, environmental, human), India appears to be the ideal replacement solution: a large and cheap workforce,[2] a desire for development “at all […]

Article written by Michael Kahn, an independent adviser on innovation anticipation, policy, monitoring and evaluation. Professor Kahn is honorary Research Fellow at Stellenbosch University and Professor of Practice in the University of Johannesburg, He works with governments, the multilateral organisations, NGOs and higher education. His most recent publications are the UNESCO GO-SPIN Report for Mozambique, a […]

One hundred years ago this year, the Ottoman Empire collapsed.[1] Officially born in 1299, it was mainly with the capture of Constantinople in 1453 that the empire was born from a European perspective. Until a hundred years ago, for more than five centuries, Europeans and Ottomans lived side by side, brothers and enemies and sometimes […]

To begin this year, our team would like to warmly thank all of our readers who responded to the questionnaire we sent you in our previous issue. Many of you have expressed interest and enthusiasm in the idea of building a space for research, reflection and anticipation, in which we can share our knowledge and […]

The tangle of all the crises in the making is reaching such an intensity that it is hard to believe that a major rupture will not occur by the end of the year. Not to mention wars and other conflicts,[1] inflation,[2] shortages,[3] unprecedented widespread impoverishment,[4] “hurricane of famines”,[5] natural disasters,[6] drought,[7] blackouts,[8]… if it is […]