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GEAB Special issue July

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 14 Jul 2020

Historians of the future: GEAB surrenders its body of analyses to science

Political anticipation often uses the expression “historians of the future”. Usually, LEAP thus evokes the idea that its method of anticipation is to the future what History is to the past (in short, documentary qualification and heuristic narrative).

Today, however, it is to the historians of tomorrow that we address ourselves, to those who will tell the story of the great global systemic transition crisis of 2008-2020, a crisis to which we believe that the GEAB provides a corpus of analyses absolutely unique in its scope (more than 3000 pages), its regularity (a systematic observation every month for nearly 15 years), its precision (the GEAB did nothing else than try to understand the characteristics of the transformation process and where it would lead), its depth (the anchoring of each analysis in a mass of factual sources of information) and its degree of objectivity (the monthly exercise of ‘divination’ of the sequence of events together with the annual evaluation work are constraints that leave no room for conflicting ideologies and biases).

The GEAB, a global expert on the global systemic crisis

Given all these characteristics, it is reasonable to consider that LEAP, with its GEAB corpus, is undoubtedly one of the world’s leading experts on the 2008-2020 crisis. From the outset (LEAP/Europe2020), LEAP had the year 2020 as its time horizon, anticipating it as the changeover to the ‘world after’. And for the past three years, our team has been looking at the paradigm shift planned for this year, with the digitalisation of the monetary system as its backbone. For this reason, we have decided to end the transition period in 2020, thus referring to the ‘global systemic crisis of 2008-2020’ – a major crisis with the same level of transformative intensity as the Renaissance.

While LEAP, with the proven efficacy of its method of understanding the future, will continue to describe the future in the pages of its monthly newsletter, the GEAB, the paradigm shift of 2020 must nevertheless be integrated into the working method of the Laboratory.

Last year, we announced that ‘LEAP had leapt to 2040’, [1] a change in horizon that needed to go hand in hand with a generational renewal of our teams. However, to maintain the quality of our anticipations, this generational renewal must be gradual and rooted in a major transmission/training effort. The current teams, representative of ‘Generation X’ (now 40-60 years old), anchor their expertise in a 35-year history of citizenship engaged in a long-term project that has forced them to take into account this future time that both separated them from and connected them to their goals.

LEAP is now thinking about how to pass on this experience to a new generation. This will consist in designing training classes in political anticipation, but also in plunging into the history that has been recounted during this time in order to create the conditions for the emergence of a Vision 2040 carried by generations more strongly focused on this horizon. For we cannot foresee the future if we do not have an interest in it.

A special issue designed by the LEAP junior team

It is in this spirit that this special issue has been designed by our ‘junior team’, who have been entrusted with the task of diving into the GEAB archives to identify the main threads of the observed transformation.

Our young historians were first struck by the ‘systematic’ structuring in phases and stages as set out in the first years of the publication (2006-2008). This systematic – and systemic – eye towards a global and multisectoral crisis is both what allowed us to correctly anticipate the stages of transition, and what will allow historians of the future to make sense and tell the story of this major period in the history of humanity. They therefore deemed it relevant to begin their work of ‘diving into the archives’ by focusing on finding the infrastructure for analysis.

They also identified a major thread particularly central to the transition, namely the reform of the international monetary system: everything started with the anticipation of the fall of the Dollar Wall in 2006. The consolidation of a Euroland, the emergence of the petro-yuan and the change of monetary paradigm through digitalisation have been recurring themes of observation and anticipation for the past 14 years, which our ‘junior team’ has endeavoured to identify, understand and summarise.

Although this issue focuses on the history of the crisis, it does not miss the opportunity provided by this retrospective analysis to offer its usual ‘recommendations’ which, of course, are well oriented towards the future.

This special July 2020 issue is a first step in the historicisation of the systemic crisis but, more broadly, it invites you to take advantage of your unlimited access to the GEAB archives to reread our anticipations in the light of post-COVID-19 hindsight – even if everything is not yet in place.

Everyone must now take the time to look back on what has happened in recent years in order to better understand the world as it stands today and be able to move forward with lucidity towards the future.

Join the GEAB Community on LinkedIn for more discussions on this topic.

_________________________

[1]       Source : LEAP, 04/06/2020

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Contents

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