MULTIPOLARISATION: what is it? Since 2006, the GEAB’s mission has been to analyse the very large systemic transition in which the world is struggling in order to anticipate its next turns and help its readers to make the right adaptation decisions in due time. This work is based on what we call ‘interpretive railways’ that […]
The global systemic crisis has spanned 12 years between its onset in 2008 and its conclusion in 2020, most of which correspond to the ‘decantation phase’ mentioned in the previous article. During that time, the LEAP team has kept an eye on many axes of transformation – governance, geopolitical configuration, economic models, the Middle East, […]
The ‘world-after’ is a phrase which was probably uppermost in most people’s minds during the period of global lockdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic. For the authors and readers of the GEAB, it is nothing new; this phrase has been at the centre of our anticipatory analyses since issue No.28 of October 2008. At the […]
Political anticipation often uses the expression “historians of the future”. Usually, LEAP thus evokes the idea that its method of anticipation is to the future what History is to the past (in short, documentary qualification and heuristic narrative). Today, however, it is to the historians of tomorrow that we address ourselves, to those who will […]
Over the next decade, the impact of a downturn, combined with the effects of increased competition, saturation and fatigue, and environmental considerations, all this in the context of a vast questioning of meaning, will lead to a complete repositioning of the European tourism sector. Reality has begun to remind Europe of the unsustainable nature of […]
European Tourism 2020-2030: The improbable alliance between tourism and protectionism Contrary to the feverish dreams of officials in Brussels and our capitals, fuelled by the prospect of an exponential growth in the global flow of tourists, the EU will soon cease to be the world’s main tourist destination. We anticipate that, in 2025, Europe will […]
As we all know, Donald Trump kicked off the reinvention of trade relationships by imposing customs barriers on steel and aluminium. In addition to the duty of protecting this industry and the jobs connected with it, he was motivated by the strategic nature of this sector which is intrinsically linked to the army. Economy, employment, […]
In view of China’s demographic being overtaken by India by 2022, India will use the structuring rivalry of the new world order emerging between the United States and China to advance its own interests, by operating a tactical rapprochement with Washington. This new partnership will be part of a struggle against Chinese trade surpluses and […]
This anticipation is not very original but it must nevertheless be faced with all the lucidity required. It is hardly a hypothesis, but rather a certainty: the allied European far rights will constitute the most consistent and therefore powerful parliamentary group in the next European Parliament, whatever their results in the previous national elections. What […]
We have claimed at great length in previous issues of the GEAB that neither of the two election candidates – Clinton or Trump – would be a good thing for the United States. The verdict has now been passed and it is Trump who will be elected president. Among all the uncertainties that remain, we […]