Home A transatlantic overview or how Europe and the Americas will enter the winter of 2022-2023

GEAB 167

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Sep 2022

A transatlantic overview or how Europe and the Americas will enter the winter of 2022-2023

In the most troubled times, our method of political anticipation leads us to return to future facts and to broaden our vision. To see more clearly, we need our traditional calendar of future events. There is so much to say that we have chosen to restrict ourselves to the European continent and the Americas. We will complete the overview with Eurasia and Africa next month. As the crises overlap with the ability to accelerate or suspend the agendas of the various players, we invite you to travel to both sides of the Atlantic, between a West in decline and a Latin America struggling to regain control of its destiny. After you…

The West: the end of the reign!

This perspective will be brief so as not to echo the editorial in this issue. The economic shock that Europe is about to suffer will cause it to lose its main (and ultimate?) asset: the purchasing power of its nearly 500 million inhabitants. As a result, it will lose its centrality on the international scene, and will then naturally turn inward. The President of the European Commission, draped in her Atlanticist uniform for her State of the Union speech, has unfolded an ambitious programme that does everything to live up to the present challenges. However, the national heads of state have the same desire and have more room for maneuver. It is therefore difficult to imagine that the EU could emerge stronger from this harsh winter. The strategic retreat will inevitably take place at national level. On the other side of the Atlantic, the phenomenon is similar, except that it is the global commitments from which the US will gradually withdraw, and that the withdrawal will take place in the economic as well as in the political spheres.


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