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GEAB 167

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Sep 2022

What will be left of Europe when its consumer market disappears

(open letter to European Atlanticists)

NATO and Atlanticist circles are shamelessly crowing about the superb unity displayed by the Allied camp “thanks” to the suffering in Ukraine[1] : “Who would have thought that a war would be a rebirth of the Alliance from its brain death noted by the French president a year ago?” the Atlanticists are currently gloating[2]. But the brain death attested by Emmanuel Macron[3], who knows what he is talking about given his vantage point, was not about NATO’s loss of unity or strength but about the loss of “brain”, of understanding and consequently of the ability to lead its members towards desirable future days.

Our team therefore proposes to contradict the unhealthy hopes of the last madmen of the transatlantic axis who have lost their sense of morality and judgement, and are now openly rejoicing in having transformed the European peace project into a war project, the European prosperity project into a misery project, the European strategic independence project into a NATO sub-project, and the European democracy project into an imperialist project (as Franck Biancheri made the gloomy prediction as early as 1992 in his book Europe: Community or Empire?[4]).

But the question we should be asking them, and which puts the first nail in the coffin of their strategy based on the denial of new geopolitical realities (what strategy worthy of the name can deny reality?…), is the following: What do they think will happen to Europe when its last international selling point, its consumer market, is sacrificed on the altar of war ideology? And what will happen to the ‘West’ if Europe disappears from the radar?

And now that we’ve got your attention, let’s continue our argumentation…

Death of the Queen and brain death of NATO: what is the link?

Exactly twenty years after the first shock of the multipolar world during the very short period of uncontested US domination of the world (1991-2001), the Queen of England, the eminent symbol of an “old-style” global Europe based on the triptych “domination of the European continent – transatlantic axis – Commonwealth”, died at the end of her 70 years of uncontested reign. When it comes to History, whether of the past or the future, symbolic events count.

Indeed, what if this famous “brain” of the Alliance was more on the European side than on the American side?

Of course, when one thinks of NATO or “transatlantic axis”, Washington and the famous US domination of Europe come to mind first. However, between Obama’s “Asian pivot”[5] and Trump’s thunderous questioning of NATO’s usefulness[6], the United States has been sending clear and bipartisan signals of its desire to disengage from a Europe that is costing it a lot of money and may only bring it trouble.

It is then appropriate to ask ourselves who these Atlanticist networks are made up of. Undoubtedly, there are many Europeans[7]. Not to mention that most of the transatlantic organisations are actually located in Europe: NATO in Brussels, OECD in Paris… and that Europe has gained enormously by delegating its defence – and especially the costs of its defence (a master stroke) – to American janitors[8].

What if the reversal of the poles of the transatlantic axis identified in June 2020[9] was in reality not a recent trend at all but only a reality recently perceived by our team? A reality that had been well camouflaged for a very long time behind the comfortable narrative of American domination of the world and therefore of Europe…

And what if America was only the extension of the imperialist version of Europe, a veritable sea snake of the planet since the era of the great discoveries?

And above all, what if the real head of these transatlantic networks of influence was in fact in London[10], the former capital of the American colony?

And finally, what if America was in fact about to finalise its independence process 250 years later? What if Biden was America’s last European president?

History is a matter of narrative, and the same facts can be linked along different explanatory lines. In the constant search for understanding of world developments that has occupied our team for 16 years, testing new narratives is a powerful way to question our certainties. In fact, this angle of understanding is fertile within anticipations… particularly regarding the future of the Alliance.

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In the most troubled times, our method of political anticipation leads us to return to future facts and to broaden our vision. To see more clearly, we need our traditional [...]

This article was edited by Pierre-Alix Pajot, a History-Geography teacher, former intern at the French Embassy in Sarajevo. His work focused initially on the integration of Serbia into the European [...]

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