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GEAB 128

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Oct 2018

Investments, trends and recommendations (Oct 2018)

– GAFAM: On their way home?
– Oil: You’ve guessed it!
– US dollar: The same thing!
– Large corporations: Vital or not?

GAFAM: On their way home? 

GAFAM (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft) have been the masters of the world, but this is coming to an end. Two phenomena are playing a part in this analysis.

Firstly, their global monopoly is being challenged increasingly by the emergence of regional competition: In China, the BATX (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi) is spreading well beyond their borders; Europe is now better equipped to prevent its innovations from being systematically bought out by the Americans; Bengalore, the Indian Silicon Valley, will soon follow Europe’s example, not to mention the dynamism coming from countries like Rwanda, Uganda or Ghana in Africa,[1] or the Middle East[2] … And the list could continue.

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In summary

The reinforcement of the transatlantic relationship, secret operations on all sides, skirmishes between the Chinese and North Americans in the China Sea, trade wars, hard rights rising, warning shots on [...]

Three times a year, the GEAB produces a calendar of significant events during the next four months. This calendar is the kind of tool normally used by the world’s major strategists, who are wary of sharing such tools and especially of making their comments on these formational events public. Fortunately, LEAP is here and its calendar of forthcoming events will save you valuable time when reading the news in the coming months. You’ll already know about it …

If you mix oil with paper and throw in a match, what do you think it will happen? This short article is intended to add to our list of oil market features a phenomenon we began to discern last month, but which, in our view, is growing. Most importantly, this phenomenon brings us closer to a ‘day of reckoning’ with potentially cataclysmic consequences. Despite no longer being at the centre of the economic world, we know the degree to which oil remains the pillar of the international monetary and financial system based on the still resisting dollar…

Currently, the media is marking 10 years of a crisis they didn’t see coming in the first place and questioning experts they did not listen to at the time (at best) or who became experts after its advent (at worst). Hence, it’s time to recall that LEAP/E2020 and the GEAB were among the very few who first forecasted the crisis – in the midst of complete media indifference – with a degree of detail that was barely equalled…

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