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GEAB 147

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Sep 2020

Investments, trends and recommendations (Sept 2020)

Commodity markets’ upcoming revolution

Growing trade conflicts and de-globalisation within the commodity markets will trigger a rewrite of many COMEX pricing contracts and a resurgence in regional exchanges by 2025. For the last 20 years, the international pricing of key commodities has been driven by the growing market in futures contracts. Today, as many prices are beginning to detach from the delivery of the actual physical commodity, and rely increasingly on cash payments, the system is clearly failing. We anticipate that an increase in volatility and trade tensions ‘post-covid’ will fracture this market further and usher in an era of more regionally based pricing systems, physical exchanges and bilateral trade deals.

There will be a whole article on this anticipation next month.

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