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An evaluation of our anticipations for 2018 (drawn from GEAB No 121 of January 2018): 68% successful

17 Up et 16 Down Each year in December, we release an evaluation of our anticipations presented last January. This time, we end up with a final score of 22.5 out of 33 key tendencies, meaning a 68% success, 7 points less than last year (75%). Here is our success rate graphic: The view we […]

A changing paradigm: Glimpses of what is coming after the global “nationalist” wave (part two)

Future developments: What will be the new normal? President Trump emerged as a champion of those who perceived that they were left behind in the inequality race and who felt others were ‘flooding’ into ‘their’ country to take their jobs, as traditional politicians filled their own pockets, whilst clinging to economic theories of growth and […]

First semester of 2019 – Anger of nations, Balkans, end of the QE, Special Purpose Vehicle, Brexit, Elections… Europe: Countdowns are on!

The ‘yellow vests’ (FR),[1] the pro- and anti-Brexit protests (UK),[2] the German political crisis (DE),[3] the Catalan independence movement (SP),[4] the budget battle (IT),[5] the labour law reform (HU),[6] the Marrakesh agreement and ministerial reshuffle (BE)[7]… the European element in the increasingly violent crises currently feeding the national news is striking. Disclaimer: We recommend that […]

Germany: An Arrhythmia at the Heart of Europe

We anticipate that this European state will face several economic, cultural and political difficulties this year and next. First, the rise of the euro will hurt German exports; the stabilisation of oil prices prohibits the oxygen balloon effect of prices declines of 2015; failure of the migrant strategy puts Germany face to face with all […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Mar 2017)

General strategy: the eye of the storm Like we started warning in our last GEAB issue, the utmost caution is still required these days. The appearance of recovery, here and there, is either the effect of short-term communication, or sources of disruptions with unpredictable consequences (or both). Our general advice is to stay vigilant and […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (May 2017)

Oil – It’s working In spite of many interests that obviously want to minimise the impact of the agreement on oil production between OPEC and its allies, and doubts related to the sustainability of the deal, it seems that Russians and Saudis are planning to extend the Vienna Agreement[1] until – at least – the […]

United Kingdom: Towards a May-xit

“Since there is no future, the wanderings of the past are back in Europe”. On this topic, our team finds interesting to identify some sort of an echo of the Continental Blockade[1] within the Brexit affair. There will be of course no strict parallel, but this parallel might show that Brexit is at least as […]

Brexit : Back to the Commonwealth alongside a deep trade partnership with the EU

A trade in goods without obstacles An abandonment of this regulation and an emancipation of the Brussels’ tutelage still remain largely probable, because although a trade partnership following Brexit goes without saying, it is far from guaranteed that it will cover financial services as well. The speech on 2nd March has definitely clarified a point […]

Geopolitics / Summer 2018: A leap into the unknown… with no safety net

For the past two years, we have been witnessing the meticulous dismantling of the world order that has prevailed since 1945. Unable to adapt to new realities, this world order began to break up in 2001. However, in the last two years, the national units that make up this international system have made a decided […]

United Kingdom 2019: What if Brexit proved to be a success story?

So far, the media and political analysts have been unanimous: Brexit represents an uncertain and dangerous future only for the UK. Our readers know that we have always been more circumspect about this. Now that the first phase of negotiations has been completed (at the end of last year) and the second phase is about […]

European Trade Agreements – 2019: Death of the Swan

Brexit seemed to have opened up the long-awaited project of redefining the functioning and objectives of the European machine. But today Brussels prefers to boast about the UK’s difficulties, and, thinking of itself as unavoidable, it is undertaking to unearth all its bottom drawer projects. Hence, over the heads of the citizens, a whole bunch of […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Oct 2017)

General Recommendation – Alert: Large zone of ​​turbulence by the end of the year It is of course impossible to guess what the end of the year will precisely look like. Nevertheless, we wish to draw our readers’ attention to the fact that the whole planet is currently in a general and simultaneous repositioning phase. […]

2019 / Brexit: Towards the reintegration of the new UK into a new Europe

Our loyal readers will not have been surprised by the result of Theresa May’s early election. Not only had we put in perspective a defeat of Theresa May, despite the favourable outcome given to her by the polls; but, from Greece to the United Kingdom, we keep repeating that there is no exit from Europe, […]

The rupture of Western information systems: How to survive “informationally” speaking?

Since the Second World War, the moral domination of the West over the rest of the world has been largely based on the undeniable quality of its media, guarantors of representative information of world realities and public debates concerning them. This is not to idealise a system of course far from perfect, but to remember […]

Post-Brexit: European schemes of dismemberment of the City of London

The tiny financial centres of the Eurozone have been rubbing their hands since the British chose to leave the EU, positioning themselves in order to recuperate significant market shares of the City’s activity. A recent study made by the Brussels think-tank Bruegel proposes two scenarios of possible gains for a number of financial centres, depending […]

France 2017: What can we hope from the presidential election? – Criteria and tips

In short, the answer is, not much. But let’s elaborate! As our team noted in the September issue, Brexit unleashed a large potential to reorganise Europe with, as it happens in transitions, huge opportunities but also great dangers. But citizens of several countries at the heart of Europe find themselves stuck in unnecessary and dysfunctional […]

American Election – Brexit – Euroland – TTIP – Turkey – Russian Sanctions: What future is there for the European Commission within the big redefinition of the Transatlantic Relationship?

Since its creation, the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin has been designed among other things to inform European public opinion and decision makers about the fact that the global geopolitical reconfiguration vitally requires a profound change of the EU. The United States, structural associate of the European project since its origin – but mostly since the […]

Insurance sector: Questioning of the economic model

Everyone remembers the images picturing floods, hail storms, mudslides, tornadoes and other disasters that have swept Europe, Germany, France, and Belgium recently, but also those of other continents (America, Australia, and Canada, where huge fires are still raging in Alberta). The estimated damage is reported to be in billions of Euros: 1.4 billion estimated in […]