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GEAB 147

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Sep 2020

2020-2030: From SpaceX to the next ‘Star Wars’

The arrival of private satellite launchers – inaugurated by SpaceX – is a major game-changer, opening the way for space privatisation. If we combine this trend with the older one of a multi-polarisation (since the arrival of China, India, Brazil, etc.) of the skies, as well as the diversification of the uses of space (observation, weather, navigation, telecommunications, espionage, war), and add to all this a lack of international regulation[1], we can certainly anticipate major space crises over the next 10-20 years. Ranging from a simple increase in the number of space object collisions to “spacetorial” (space + territorial) conflicts, comparable to those that shook the colonised world in the 19th and 20th centuries (leading to the world wars we know all too well), these crises will not be long in coming. 

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In summary

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