Home Les bulletins GEAB GEAB Middle East Israel 2020: Two scenarios for the future (excerpt / GEAB 7, Sept. 2006)

GEAB Middle East

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Aug 2019

Israel 2020: Two scenarios for the future (excerpt / GEAB 7, Sept. 2006)

Scenario 1: Towards the end of the State of Israel / Scenario 2: Towards a durable Israeli state

Continuing its in-depth analysis of the consequences of the end of the world order which had been the legacy of WWII, LEAP/E2020 started several months ago a strategic reflexion on the future of Israel. In this number 7 of the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin, our teams present the two major options which, according to our work, are offered to the Israelis as the future of their country byn the year 2020. The summer 2006 Lebanese-Israeli crisis has indeed made it possible to identify more precisely the parameters which from now on will define the regional equation of the Middle East. The development of the two scenarios thus integrates the often radical transformation of seven strategic parameters. Each of the two scenarios is then a result of the type of answers given by the main players involved to the modifications of their strategic environment. The first presents the consequences (in the radically new environment which emerged from the crisis of the summer 2006) of the continuation for another decade of the policy adopted by Israel since the middle of the Nineties. The second explores the potential of a radical rupture of the Israeli policy from that followed these past few years, in order to adapt to the new constraints weighing on the Middle East.

Seven structural assumptions:

Comments

To leave a comment sign up now
In summary

This summer of 2019, in which the Middle East continues to be in the spotlight, we have found and gathered 7 scenarios which are emblematic of our vision of the [...]

The West couldn’t help but acknowledge the Morsi’s overthrow by the military in Egypt on 3 July last. Fortunately, everyone quickly realised that one can hardly claim democracy and greet [...]

We have repeatedly analyzed that only the regional powers would be able to restore calm in the Middle East and resolve the Daesh issue, the common enemy on which (almost) [...]

The end of the year will be rich in surprises and escalation risks, as we have been saying for the last two months. Currently, all eyes are on the Middle [...]

We can not help going back to the Middle East this month, simply because what is happening now looks so much like we had been anticipating for several years and [...]

The Middle Eastern mega-city project called NEOM that we have told you about in a previous issue is a real reason to hope. As mentioned last time, the Saudis would [...]

We estimate that there is a very high (70%) probability of the imminent launch of a rapid and brutal birthing process of Greater Israel. Figure 1: Comparison between the presentation [...]

Related articles
Geta Grama-Moldovan
14 Aug 2019

Second quarter 2019: Epilogue of the creation of Greater Israel (excerpt / GEAB 133, March 2019)

#geopolitics #governance #Israel #middle east

We estimate that there is a very high (70%) probability of the imminent launch of a rapid and brutal birthing process of Greater Israel. Figure 1: Comparison between the presentation [...]

Geta Grama-Moldovan
14 Aug 2019

NEOM, between a New Jerusalem and the Library of Alexandria (excerpt / GEAB 125, May 2018)

#geopolitics #middle east #NEOM #saudi arabia

The Middle Eastern mega-city project called NEOM that we have told you about in a previous issue is a real reason to hope. As mentioned last time, the Saudis would [...]

Geta Grama-Moldovan
14 Aug 2019

Israel-Palestine: Somewhere between dream and nightmare (excerpt / GEAB 120, Dec. 2017)

#geopolitics #Israel #middle east

We can not help going back to the Middle East this month, simply because what is happening now looks so much like we had been anticipating for several years and [...]