GEAB Middle East

The end of the year will be rich in surprises and escalation risks, as we have been saying for the last two months. Currently, all eyes are on the Middle East, the world’s powder keg, and on the tensions emerging around Lebanon, involving nothing less than protagonists like the United States, Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran. The details of this affair send chills up our spines with the resignation/withdrawal of a prime minister (the pro-Saudi Lebanese Saad Hariri), the Israeli-Saudi rapprochement against Hezbollah, the Houthi missiles (Yemen) fired at Riyadh, the involvement of Iran in the latter event by Saudi Arabia… All this at a time when the Qatari crisis is still unsolved and President Trump seems to be everywhere. So, are we on the eve of an Israeli attack on Lebanon further to Saudi Arabia’s request[1], as claimed by the very charismatic Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah[2]? Should Europe prepare for a new migratory wave and related catastrophic side effects? Or, should we read between the lines and go beyond the usual interpretation codes? One thing is for sure, the Middle East is about to switch resolutely to a new era. Our team’s aim is to try an anticipation of what that era might look like.

At first sight…

According to the twentieth-century reading codes (based on two essential principles: 1/the United States call the shots in the region 2/following a simple strategy borrowed from the British and consisting of “divide and conquer” rule), here is the immediate interpretation popping up to one’s intelligence…

Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United States are preparing an attack on Lebanon targeting Hezbollah and Iran. The United States is holding China in check via North Korea – the latter having allowed US military ships closer to the Chinese coasts – whilst threatening to trigger an attack if China makes a move, and thus provoking the destabilising domino effect the Chinese want at all costs to avoid. The United States also hold Russia in the Baltic Sea (where US and NATO forces sail), promising the Russians to start a second front if they make a move on Iran/Lebanon (within absolute disregard of the most obvious interest of their European ally). Knowing Europe doesn’t weigh much, the path is open to attack pro-Shiite forces in the Middle-East, fight against Iran directly if required, and seize control over the whole region.