Home Turkish Elections – The impossibility of chaos in Turkey (excerpt / GEAB 98, Oct. 2015)

GEAB Middle East

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Aug 2019

Turkish Elections – The impossibility of chaos in Turkey (excerpt / GEAB 98, Oct. 2015)

We have repeatedly analyzed that only the regional powers would be able to restore calm in the Middle East and resolve the Daesh issue, the common enemy on which (almost) everyone has agreed.
However, we have stated that the US or Russian interventions would only have the effect of exacerbating tensions.

Repeatedly missed opportunities

Suffice it to say that the recent developments, setting the stage for a US/Russian confrontation in the Middle East, are not a move in the right direction. And we have also identified the Iranian Shi’ites and Turkish Sunnis, the only two democracies in the region (imperfect certainly – like all of us moreover – but assessed in the terms of the rest of the region), as the only possible legitimate alliance and guarantors of the region’s multi-confessionalism.

Ideally, Egypt should add itself to this alliance (this is the role that the Egyptians’ courageous fight during the Arab spring should have allowed them to play) and thus, in a minor role, Israel (which would have been made possible by Herzog’s election instead of Netanyahu during the last elections[1]).

All the conditions would then have been met for a democratic and multi-confessional reorganization of the region. Egypt[2] and Israel[3] have been permanently eliminated from playing a positive role and the chances of a transition out of the crisis have been greatly reduced.

Iran, on the other hand, has been placed on parole and is beginning to rediscover the regional role which is incumbent upon it. That said, this country is under attack on two fronts (the Yemen and Syria) and its “parole” means that it doesn’t always have a free hand to defend its interests and those of its allies.

Finally, Turkey now finds itself in indescribable chaos[4] and apparently really unable to play the slightest independent role in the region.

Comments

To leave a comment sign up now
Contents

This summer of 2019, in which the Middle East continues to be in the spotlight, we have found and gathered 7 scenarios which are emblematic of our vision of the [...]

Scenario 1: Towards the end of the State of Israel / Scenario 2: Towards a durable Israeli state Continuing its in-depth analysis of the consequences of the end of the [...]

The West couldn’t help but acknowledge the Morsi’s overthrow by the military in Egypt on 3 July last. Fortunately, everyone quickly realised that one can hardly claim democracy and greet [...]

The end of the year will be rich in surprises and escalation risks, as we have been saying for the last two months. Currently, all eyes are on the Middle [...]

We can not help going back to the Middle East this month, simply because what is happening now looks so much like we had been anticipating for several years and [...]

The Middle Eastern mega-city project called NEOM that we have told you about in a previous issue is a real reason to hope. As mentioned last time, the Saudis would [...]

We estimate that there is a very high (70%) probability of the imminent launch of a rapid and brutal birthing process of Greater Israel. Figure 1: Comparison between the presentation [...]

Related articles
GEAB
15 Oct 2021

The China-AUKUS war will not happen

#China #geopolitics #GlobalBritain

The new military alliance between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States (AUKUS) illustrates nothing more than a reheating of the Cold War between China and the West. In [...]

GEAB
15 Sep 2021

United States 2022 – Who will benefit from the trillions in the Infrastructure Deal?

#geopolitics #united states

To avoid the collapse of the dollar, Biden (as well as Trump before him) is betting on a Keynesian plan to rebuild the country's infrastructure and social and health care [...]

GEAB
15 Sep 2021

United States, Europe, Muslim World, Mafias 2040: The domino effects of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan

#afghanistan #America #Arab World #geopolitics #organised crime #values

In Afghanistan, the Taliban are back in power and history is picking up where it left off exactly 20 years ago. However, those 20 years of Afghanistan's mire have occurred, [...]