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GEAB Middle East

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Aug 2019

Israel-Palestine: Somewhere between dream and nightmare (excerpt / GEAB 120, Dec. 2017)

We can not help going back to the Middle East this month, simply because what is happening now looks so much like we had been anticipating for several years and announced at the beginning of 2017 in our list of “up and down trends”: Saudi Arabia’s emergence as a new strong player in the region, Turkey’s independence, switch from Israel to Daesh as regional enemy, game change with Russia’s return, waning US influence… As argued in the last issue of the GEAB, the Middle East of the end of 2017 is very different from that of the end of 2016.

After having been world’s hot news in the 1980-90, we all preferred to forget about the Palestinian issue, this burning point dating back to the 20th century. And, over the horizon of this Palestinian question, there is still the face-to-face issue between Israel and Iran, Damocles’ sword hanging more than ever above the fate of the region. Here two topics, the regional transformation of which makes it possible to hope for a resolution in the short term.

A stone in the pond 

Both Iran’s normalisation and Hezbollah’s disarmament are rooted in the Palestinian solution.

Well the lines on this front were brutally moved by Donald Trump and the announcement of the US embassy’s relocation in Jerusalem so much debated by the media[1]. This decision changes many parameters among which we recall the focus on regional actors’ responsibility. With this demonstration, the United States somehow withdraws from the game, thus forcing the protagonists to face their responsibilities…

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In summary

This summer of 2019, in which the Middle East continues to be in the spotlight, we have found and gathered 7 scenarios which are emblematic of our vision of the [...]

Scenario 1: Towards the end of the State of Israel / Scenario 2: Towards a durable Israeli state Continuing its in-depth analysis of the consequences of the end of the [...]

The West couldn’t help but acknowledge the Morsi’s overthrow by the military in Egypt on 3 July last. Fortunately, everyone quickly realised that one can hardly claim democracy and greet [...]

We have repeatedly analyzed that only the regional powers would be able to restore calm in the Middle East and resolve the Daesh issue, the common enemy on which (almost) [...]

The end of the year will be rich in surprises and escalation risks, as we have been saying for the last two months. Currently, all eyes are on the Middle [...]

The Middle Eastern mega-city project called NEOM that we have told you about in a previous issue is a real reason to hope. As mentioned last time, the Saudis would [...]

We estimate that there is a very high (70%) probability of the imminent launch of a rapid and brutal birthing process of Greater Israel. Figure 1: Comparison between the presentation [...]

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