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GEAB Middle East

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Aug 2019

Middle East Retrospective: 7 Scenarios for one Vision

This summer of 2019, in which the Middle East continues to be in the spotlight, we have found and gathered 7 scenarios which are emblematic of our vision of the region’s future. They will be presented here exactly as originally published.

The originality of our team’s anticipations of the Middle East region’s future is thus being tested in the light of reality this summer. But no matter how much tension is currently being created in order to deliver this future, we continue to hold to this vision.

Israel, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran… the major players in the tragedy that has been unfolding during the past ten years to get the Middle East out of its deadlock have been reviewed. Their objectives and strategies have been decoded, the hopes for crisis resolution evoked, and the risks of slippage identified.

These articles, selected over a period of 13 years, have already largely been tested by reality, revealing divergences, of course, but also brilliant flashes of inspiration – such as the almost to the letter anticipation of the Turkish coup d’état. Admittedly, this Middle East 3.0 is taking a long time to become established, but the increase in the number of tourists in this region revealed in the July special edition (10% growth in 2018 compared to 5% the previous year) together with the  ongoing development of the Neom project, among many more indicators, confirm for our team the relevance of the risks taken over the years in terms of anticipations.

Even the oldest and most courageous article, the one on the two future scenarios for Israel, still makes sense, perhaps more than ever now. Indeed, if the major card that the State of Israel is playing this year – to establish itself in the region and have its existence recognised – fails and degenerates, are we not getting closer to the first scenario? Among other things, the recent interest shown by Israeli researchers in this article convinces us that the unthinkable seems to be being considered nowadays…

Within the major chaos that the Middle East still presents, this series of GEAB analyses may provide perspective, revealing broad directions and increasing understanding of the evolution of this tormented cradle of humanity.

Contents:

– September 2006 – Israel 2020 – Two scenarios for the future

– September 2013 – Military coup d’etat in Egypt – 5 to 10 lost years for Middle Eastern democracy… to the political explosion in Saudi Arabia ?

– October 2015 – Turkish elections – The impossibility of chaos in Turkey

– November 2017 – Saudi Arabia-Israel-Iran: The creation of a Middle East 3.0

– December 2017 – Israel-Palestine: Somewhere between dream and nightmare  

– May 2018 – NEOM, between a New Jerusalem and the Library of Alexandria

– March 2019 – Second quarter 2019: Epilogue of the creation of Greater Israel

Read the Middle East Retrospective in full

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In summary

Scenario 1: Towards the end of the State of Israel / Scenario 2: Towards a durable Israeli state Continuing its in-depth analysis of the consequences of the end of the [...]

The West couldn’t help but acknowledge the Morsi’s overthrow by the military in Egypt on 3 July last. Fortunately, everyone quickly realised that one can hardly claim democracy and greet [...]

We have repeatedly analyzed that only the regional powers would be able to restore calm in the Middle East and resolve the Daesh issue, the common enemy on which (almost) [...]

The end of the year will be rich in surprises and escalation risks, as we have been saying for the last two months. Currently, all eyes are on the Middle [...]

We can not help going back to the Middle East this month, simply because what is happening now looks so much like we had been anticipating for several years and [...]

The Middle Eastern mega-city project called NEOM that we have told you about in a previous issue is a real reason to hope. As mentioned last time, the Saudis would [...]

We estimate that there is a very high (70%) probability of the imminent launch of a rapid and brutal birthing process of Greater Israel. Figure 1: Comparison between the presentation [...]

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