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The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Apr 2024

2024 Electoral Calendar: Weak signals in a changing world

While two elections capture the world’s attention – the European elections in June and the US presidential election on 5 November – there are other elections on the international calendar that also merit our scrutiny to spot the subtle signals of a changing world landscape.

The beginning of the year was marked by the Taiwanese elections. While outgoing Vice-President Lai Ching-te won the presidential election, his pro-Washington DPP party lost its majority in Parliament (legislative elections were held simultaneously with the presidential election) to the pro-Beijing Kuomintang (KMT): 51 seats to 52. But a new player entered the scene, the TPP (Taiwanese People’s Party), which won 8 seats and will therefore play the role of “kingmaker”. It should be noted that the TPP is the voice of the generation born after the democratisation of the island (completed in 1987), for whom “the question of Taiwan’s identity no longer arises”. This introduces a new element of rupture with the conception of the world “before”[1]. As we have already pointed out, whether it be the DPP or the KMT, Taiwanese identity is no longer a debate in itself. This poses the challenge for China of reinventing an inclusive approach to this island located not even 100 nautical miles (160km) from its mainland.


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