Home 2024 Electoral Calendar: Weak signals in a changing world

GEAB 184

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Apr 2024

2024 Electoral Calendar: Weak signals in a changing world

While two elections capture the world’s attention – the European elections in June and the US presidential election on 5 November – there are other elections on the international calendar that also merit our scrutiny to spot the subtle signals of a changing world landscape.

The beginning of the year was marked by the Taiwanese elections. While outgoing Vice-President Lai Ching-te won the presidential election, his pro-Washington DPP party lost its majority in Parliament (legislative elections were held simultaneously with the presidential election) to the pro-Beijing Kuomintang (KMT): 51 seats to 52. But a new player entered the scene, the TPP (Taiwanese People’s Party), which won 8 seats and will therefore play the role of “kingmaker”. It should be noted that the TPP is the voice of the generation born after the democratisation of the island (completed in 1987), for whom “the question of Taiwan’s identity no longer arises”. This introduces a new element of rupture with the conception of the world “before”[1]. As we have already pointed out, whether it be the DPP or the KMT, Taiwanese identity is no longer a debate in itself. This poses the challenge for China of reinventing an inclusive approach to this island located not even 100 nautical miles (160km) from its mainland.

Comments

To leave a comment sign up now
Contents

© Kerozen Concept (AI generated image) In a world where upheavals are occurring with increasing frequency, it's easy to value the constants. The American presidential elections are always a thrilling soap opera. [...]

The decline of the United States' power in recent years has been widely acknowledged. Our team, in this bulletin, was among the first to extensively discuss the emergence of a [...]

The debate over whether the heads of the largest US technology companies or successive US Presidents wield the most power has persisted for many years. While the ascendance of the [...]

In its counter-attack, the American e-Empire cannot ignore its chosen weapon: the dollar. It is impossible to reinvent American power and its domination of the global system without reinventing the [...]

Marie-Hélène Caillol, President of LEAP and author of this article, draws on the work carried out with the Real-Futur Excellence Centre of the INSEEC-MSc business school, (PERF) which she founded [...]

Bitcoin halving, very short-term positioning Following on from our article on the recovery of Bitcoin by the United States, we recommend that you continue to position yourself for the very [...]

Related articles
GEAB
15 May 2024

Investments, trends and recommendations (May)

#banks #China #copper #finance #investment #nuclear

CBDC, critical materials, digital industries, green energies, electric cars... China leads the way The transition to CBDCs adds another layer of digitalisation, and will put further strain on markets under [...]

GEAB
15 Feb 2024

Chinese investments in North Africa and the Middle East: A shift in the centre of gravity

#africa #China #governance #investments #middle east

Egypt lies at the crossroads of trade routes, providing a link between two major regions: North Africa and the Arab countries. This strategic geographical position puts Egypt, in North Africa, [...]

GEAB
15 Dec 2023

2030 – Latin America, the new epicentre in the US-China Economic Battle

#China #finance #geopolitics #governance #latinamerica #unitedstates

By January 1st, 2024, Argentina was expected to become a member of the BRICS bloc, alongside Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. However, Milei's election as [...]