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GEAB 184

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Apr 2024
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© Kerozen Concept (AI generated image)

In a world where upheavals are occurring with increasing frequency, it’s easy to value the constants. The American presidential elections are always a thrilling soap opera. The motherland of Hollywood knows how to captivate the attention of the rest of the world, and this season is no exception. With the traditional rhythm of alternating between Republicans and Democrats disrupted, the stakes are up again and the suspense reaches its peak, except that in every good show lies an illusion, in this case it’s the illusion of choice. For those who still hold onto belief, fear not! While the present has caught up with the future, making science fiction classics an occasionally disturbing reality, there’s no danger of disappointment. Surprises will continue to abound. Spoiler alert!

This regular rotation was a vital characteristic of the United States’ status as a global leader, which has largely eroded over the past two terms. Our team is now anticipating the American response to the multipolar world. This is it, the empire strikes back. This counterattack has started and has even proved its worth, gradually spreading over the two terms of Trump and Biden, so that there is unanimous support for it. That’s why it doesn’t matter who wins the election, the strategy is common to both parties and is already in place and will remain so for the next term. It’s a classic back-to-basics strategy of reindustrialisation with protectionism. It’s not an inward-looking strategy, but one that focuses on the country as a whole in order to project itself more effectively on the international stage.

Except that today’s and tomorrow’s industry is dominated by Big Tech, constrained by global limits and taking place at the same time as AI is being deployed. A new context that reverses the power relations between political power and the private power of the Silicon Valley majors. And because establishing global leadership requires stability, which political parties can no longer guarantee, the Big Tech will provide it. So, Silicon Valley will take the reins of the e-Empire, and this is the first consequence we anticipate in United States 2025 -The e-Empire Strikes Back.

Beyond reindustrialisation, what will the counter-attack of this e-Empire look like? It will be an absolute concept of progress, understood as accumulation, and, as we come up against planetary limits, an authoritarian verticality of power to decide on a new distribution of consumer freedoms. In US Elections: Tech Takes the Helm of the Empire… Yes, but which one? our team sketches out the ideology that will be conveyed by Big Tech at the head of the e-Empire, a science-fiction reality that will be imposed on the American population before Starlink satellites broadcast it to the rest of the world.

And what better way to launch the e-Empire’s counter-attack than by hijacking a Cypherpunk symbol? Noting that the United States is lagging behind in the development of an e-Dollar, the new proponents of reinvented American power will not hesitate to get their hands on Bitcoin and put it to work for them. Reality is often disappointing, and those who dreamed of a different monetary system through cryptos will not find a happy ending in 2025 – Bitcoin International Currency of the e-Empire: How Blackrock, the US Government and Big Tech will take control of Bitcoin.

While the rest of the world is fascinated by the American election, it is nevertheless not paralysed by it. It continues to evolve under the influence of similar trends. Silicon Valley and Washington are not the only ones to be hit by the role reversal, something we discuss in the Post-ChatGPT Corporation: Accelerating the Emergence of State-Companies. Marie-Hélène Caillol shares with us the results of her research carried out as part of the PERF programme at INSEEC-MSc, to identify the trends arising from the early adoption of AI tools. In 2024, the world will not be static, which is why a report on the progress of the various elections is essential: 2024 Electoral Calendar: Weak Signals in a Changing World. Finally, as we cherish the constants in this relentless turmoil, the Investment Trends and Recommendations section awaits for you.

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Contents

The decline of the United States' power in recent years has been widely acknowledged. Our team, in this bulletin, was among the first to extensively discuss the emergence of a [...]

The debate over whether the heads of the largest US technology companies or successive US Presidents wield the most power has persisted for many years. While the ascendance of the [...]

In its counter-attack, the American e-Empire cannot ignore its chosen weapon: the dollar. It is impossible to reinvent American power and its domination of the global system without reinventing the [...]

Marie-Hélène Caillol, President of LEAP and author of this article, draws on the work carried out with the Real-Futur Excellence Centre of the INSEEC-MSc business school, (PERF) which she founded [...]

While two elections capture the world's attention - the European elections in June and the US presidential election on 5 November - there are other elections on the international calendar [...]

Bitcoin halving, very short-term positioning Following on from our article on the recovery of Bitcoin by the United States, we recommend that you continue to position yourself for the very [...]

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