Home Les bulletins GEAB GEAB 130 An evaluation of our anticipations for 2018 (drawn from GEAB No 121 of January 2018): 68% successful

GEAB 130

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Dec 2018

An evaluation of our anticipations for 2018 (drawn from GEAB No 121 of January 2018): 68% successful

17 Up et 16 Down

Each year in December, we release an evaluation of our anticipations presented last January. This time, we end up with a final score of 22.5 out of 33 key tendencies, meaning a 68% success, 7 points less than last year (75%). Here is our success rate graphic:

The view we presented at the dawn of 2018 was too full of optimism; an optimism justified by the hopes given to us by the French presidency… a visionary one for sure but which failed to take on board the relentless nature of the nationalist trends in Europe. Though we perfectly know and keep anticipating the end of the trans-European dynamic and the rise of nationalisms, we could not help thinking for a moment that France could turn things around.

Our vision will have been right for part of the year, but then things got complicated and the summer resolutely shifted the world in this rationale long anticipated by us – a bipolarisation into Chinese and American camps – which we actually hoped would move away between Emmanuel Macron’s election and the 2018 ‘summer of perils’ as we called it in June.

The end of the year is annihilating all these hopes, forcing us to grade our ‘up & down’ anticipation more severely than usual, even though, over a significant part of the year, the same evaluation would have been more favourable. This rate of success, the lowest we have had in the 13 years since we began, also results from a false anticipation that affected some others – the weakness of dollar.

Already a subscriber? login

Comments

To leave a comment sign up now
In summary

The ‘yellow vests’ (FR), the pro- and anti-Brexit protests (UK), the German political crisis (DE), the Catalan independence movement (SP), the budget battle (IT), the labour law reform (HU), the [...]

Geab.eu also is going through a period of systemic transition! Further to a long process of consultation, reflection, construction and implementation, the new GEAB site is ready to be presented [...]

Future developments: What will be the new normal? President Trump emerged as a champion of those who perceived that they were left behind in the inequality race and who felt [...]

Largely criticised by some, glorified by others, cryptocurrencies keep raising questions and represent as many threats as opportunities depending where we stand; whether on the side of citizens, institutions, businesses [...]

General recommendation: Find shelters!  You will understand when reading this issue that the clouds are gathering during the end of this year and the beginning of the next. Take out [...]

Related articles
Geta Grama-Moldovan
15 Jan 2020

Investments, trends and recommendations (Jan 2020)

#cryptos #euro #finance #investments #oil #rawmaterials

Bitcoin: Digital Gold The fairly sharp rise in the price of Bitcoin at the time of the Iranian-American crisis confirms the intuition we had in June: Bitcoin is acting as [...]

Geta Grama-Moldovan
15 Jan 2020

Panorama 2020: 32 key trends

#euro #europe #finance #geopolitics #multipolarworld #oil #rawmaterials

As we do every year, GEAB by LEAP is presenting a landscape of the key trends for the coming year. Besides the intellectual value of this LEAP contribution, which, of [...]

Geta Grama-Moldovan
15 Jan 2020

Overview 2020: The “phoney year”

#energy #europe #geopolitics #multipolarworld #society #unitedstates

As an introduction to our traditional January “key trends”, here are the main guiding lines that we have identified for this “phoney year ”. This first year of the new [...]